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Closing Line Value (CLV) & Line Movement Explained

Closing Line Value (CLV) measures whether the odds you bet were better than the final closing odds. Along with line movement, it’s one of the most important concepts in sports betting. Beating the closing line is strongly correlated with long-term profitability, even if individual bets lose. This guide explains what CLV is, how line movement works, and how to use both to improve your betting strategy.

For background, see Wikipedia’s sports betting overview for general definitions.

What Is Closing Line Value (CLV) in Betting?

Closing Line Value is the difference between the odds you bet and the odds at the closing line (just before the game starts). Example: You bet +3.5, the market closes +2.5. That’s +1 point of CLV in your favor. Over time, bettors who consistently secure positive CLV tend to win more than those who don’t.

Expert Note: CLV is about process, not results. Even if you lose a game, getting +3.5 when the line closes +2.5 means you made a sharp bet.

How Line Movement & CLV Work Together

  • Line movement = odds changing as money and news hit the market.
  • CLV = whether you beat the final number compared to the close.
  • Positive CLV proves you’re reading markets well, even in losing streaks.

What Causes Line Movement?

  • Public money: Recreational bettors drive numbers toward popular sides.
  • Sharp money: Larger respected bets can shift odds instantly.
  • News: Injuries, weather, lineup changes, rest days in NBA/MLB.
  • Market copying: Books follow moves at sharper market-makers.

How to Track CLV and Line Movement

  1. Record your bet odds: Write down the spread, total, or moneyline you played.
  2. Check the closing line: Compare it right before game time.
  3. Measure the gap: Better number = positive CLV; worse number = negative CLV.
  4. Track results over time: Positive CLV across hundreds of bets indicates a real edge.

Why Closing Line Value Matters

  • Efficiency: Closing odds are considered the most efficient market price.
  • Skill indicator: Consistently beating the close means sharper timing or reads.
  • Variance check: Losing weeks don’t matter if CLV is positive long term.

Examples of CLV in Action

NFL Spread Example

You bet +7 on Tuesday. Line closes +6. That’s +1 CLV. Even if your team loses by 7, you got a better number than the close.

NBA Total Example

You bet Under 234.5. By tipoff, the total closes 232.5. That’s +2 CLV. Regardless of result, you beat the market average.

FAQs About CLV & Line Movement

Is Closing Line Value a guarantee of profit? No. You can lose any bet, but long-term positive CLV strongly correlates with winning.

What’s more important—wins or CLV? CLV. Wins can be luck; consistently beating the close is skill.

How do I get positive CLV? Bet early, shop lines, and anticipate how public money will move odds.

Related Guides

Responsible Gaming

Bet responsibly. Set limits, track results, and seek help if betting stops being fun.