Last Updated on August 13, 2025 10:50 am by Michael Cash
If you like days where the board actually gives you angles instead of riddles, today’s your day. We’ve got ace-vs-rookie contrasts, a scorching-hot club visiting a lineup missing its late-game stopper, and a classic “Yankees vs. Twins” spot that—history suggests—leans one way. Below are my three favorite bets and two long-shot sprinkles for value, with current numbers pulled from Bovada and supported by matchup data and recent form.
Best Bet #1: Yankees ML vs. Twins (-147) — 7:05 p.m. ET
Why I like it:
- The matchup & trend: This is one of baseball’s longest-running quirks: New York tends to get the better of Minnesota, and local coverage is literally highlighting that angle again today as the Yankees look to finish a series against the Twins.
- Probable starters: The Twins line up Joe Ryan; the Yankees counter with Cam Schlittler. Ryan is the better-known arm, but Schlittler has been serviceable and shown strikeout stuff in a small sample; New York’s offense around the short porch can cover some pitching variance. (Starters: Ryan vs. Schlittler, per multiple “probable” rundowns today.)
- The number: Bovada is dealing Yankees -147 on the moneyline (Twins +123) with a total of 8.5. That price matches the historical lean and current market sentiment.
How I’d play it: Take Yankees ML (-147). If you prefer less juice, a small nibble on Yankees -1.5 (+140) is viable given New York’s power profile at home.
Best Bet #2: Guardians ML vs. Marlins (-135) — 6:40 p.m. ET
Why I like it:
- Pitching edge: Cleveland projects to start Gavin Williams (7–4, 3.17 ERA entering tonight), who’s in form and stacking quality starts. Miami counters with talented but still volatile Eury Pérez. Williams’ recent run of command and weak contact makes Cleveland the side.
- Context & form: Miami enters this one skidding, while Cleveland sits in the AL Wild Card mix—these are the nights where strong home pitching stabilizes them. (Game preview context).
- The number: Bovada is showing Guardians -135 / Marlins +105 on the moneyline—fair to slightly cheap for the home edge with the in-form starter.
How I’d play it: Guardians ML (-135). First-5 Cleveland is also reasonable if posted near -130 or better given the SP edge; full-game is my preferred route at current price.
Best Bet #3: Mariners ML at Orioles (-144) — 6:35 p.m. ET
Why I like it:
- Smoking-hot visitors: Seattle has ripped off wins like a metronome; they just beat Baltimore 1–0 behind George Kirby for their eighth straight on Tuesday night. Momentum isn’t everything—but when a staff is missing barrels and a bullpen is locking it down, it matters.
- Baltimore attrition: The O’s bullpen is thinner without elite closer Félix Bautista, who’s now out for the year—removing a high-leverage trump card in tight games.
- The number: Bovada lists Seattle -144 on the moneyline (Baltimore +121) and modest runline prices. I make this closer to the high -150s given recent form and leverage pen mismatch late.
How I’d play it: Mariners ML (-144). If you want plus money, Mariners -1.5 (+120) is live—especially with Baltimore’s late-inning downgrade.
Value Long Shots (plus-money sprinkles)
1) Nationals ML at Royals (+146) — 7:10 p.m. ET
- Why there’s value: Bovada’s hanging +146 on Washington. Kansas City’s been better overall, but this price implies a fairly steep gap for a midweek game that could come down to one swing. If Washington draws a fly-ball-prone starter or KC goes bullpen-heavy, the Nats’ contact approach can steal this.
- How I’d play it: Nationals ML (+146) for a small stake; consider doubling only if Washington’s starter confirmations or lineup card come in favorable.
2) Cubs ML at Blue Jays (+105) — 7:07 p.m. ET
- Why there’s value: Toronto’s Kevin Gausman is still excellent, but the Cubs’ rookie Cade Horton has been shoving lately (three straight wins, 17 IP, 0 ER in that run). In a one-game sample, Horton’s rising four-seam/slider mix plays, and plus-money on a competent road lineup isn’t crazy.
- The number: Bovada has Cubs +105 / Blue Jays -135. If Horton’s velo checks out pregame and Chicago’s A-lineup is in, I like the bite.
Quick Trend & Market Notes
- Bovada lines typically post the evening before and adjust day-of as pitchers and lineups confirm; if you see a price move around 5–6 p.m. ET, that’s often responsive to lineup locks or market steam.
- Yankees vs. Twins tilt: Narrative or not, New York’s historical edge over Minnesota is a real talking point again today—useful as a tie-breaker when your numbers are close.
- Seattle heater: Riding an eight-game win streak as of last night’s 1–0 win, with bullpen finishing touches from Andrés Muñoz (save No. 28). That’s the exact profile you want protecting a short favorite.
Today’s Card (All odds from Bovada, checked mid-day ET)
- BEST BET: Yankees ML -147 vs. Twins (alt: -1.5 +140).
- BEST BET: Guardians ML -135 vs. Marlins.
- BEST BET: Mariners ML -144 at Orioles (alt: -1.5 +120).
- VALUE LONG SHOT: Nationals ML +146 at Royals.
- VALUE LONG SHOT: Cubs ML +105 at Blue Jays.
Final Word
We’re leaning into three favorites that each have a real edge—Yankees’ matchup history and power at home, Cleveland’s starting-pitching advantage, and a rolling Seattle club facing a Baltimore team short its elite closer. For plus-money spice, Washington and Chicago are live dogs in coin-flip-ish spots if their lineup cards break right. As always, shop numbers and stick to your staking plan.