Last Updated on August 6, 2025 6:40 am by Anthony Rome
The Reds visit Wrigley Field on Wednesday, August 6, with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance. Cincinnati enters at 60‑54, riding a three‑game road win streak and looking to close the gap in the National League Wild Card chase. Chicago, at 65‑48, sits in second in the NL Central and comes in with considerable momentum at home. What’s the smart bet in today’s Reds vs. Cubs matchup?
Reds vs. Cubs Game Info
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
2:20 p.m. ET, Wednesday, August 6, 2025
Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Reds vs. Cubs Public Betting & Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Cubs are -133 moneyline favorites to beat the Reds, who are +120 underdogs. The total, meanwhile, sits at 7.5 runs.
As of this writing, our MLB Public Betting data page shows that the majority of public bettors are on the Reds.
Pitching Matchup
Andrew Abbott (Reds) continues his breakthrough season with an 8–1 record, 2.15 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 96 strikeouts through roughly 108⅔ innings. He’s particularly effective against the Cubs—boasting a career ERA of 2.30 over five starts versus them.
Cade Horton (Cubs) takes the mound for Chicago, with a 5–3 record, 3.42 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP in about 73⅔ innings through 14 starts. He’s riding a 17.2‑inning scoreless streak, including several quality outings.
Team Trends & Offensive Notes
Chicago’s offense features thunder at home, sitting fourth in MLB with 161 home runs, propelled by power hitters like Pete Crow‑Armstrong and Michael Busch. However, the Cubs have cooled off slightly, entering the day with two straight losses and having scored only three runs in their last two games.
The Reds are fueled by offensive balance as well, with players like Elly De La Cruz anchoring the lineup. Their success often correlates with getting at least eight hits, where they are 45‑23 when they reach that mark.
What to Watch
Abbott vs. power bats: He’s adept at limiting hard contact and home runs, allowing just 11 HR all season. He holds righties to a paltry .215 average against him. With the Cubs’ core mostly right‑handed, he poses a mismatch.
Horton’s innings limit: With a 1.29 WHIP and history of shorter outings, the Cubs bullpen could be taxed early if Horton cannot go deep.
Weather in the afternoon: Game time temperature is expected in the low 80s at Wrigley, a comfortable afternoon setting for a low‑scoring duel.
Reds vs. Cubs Betting Prediction
Despite being underdogs on the road, the Reds bring strong momentum and the far superior ERA of Abbott, who’s proven deadly against this Cubs lineup. Meanwhile, Horton is solid—but less reliable late, and the Cubs offense has been uneven of late.
Most projection models (including one from Dimers and a Reds‑leaning preview) see this as essentially a toss‑up or a slight edge to Chicago. Dimers and Fox project 56% win probability for the Cubs, while Reds‑focused outlets tilt slightly toward Cincinnati as underdogs or neutral.
My call: Reds win 5–4. Abbott goes deep into the game, Cleveland‑style efficiency, and a timely Elly De La Cruz homer or a late-inning rally gives Cincinnati the narrow victory.
Reds vs. Cubs MLB PREDICTION: CINCINNATI REDS +120