The SEC has long been known for hard-nosed defense and power football. But in 2026, it’s the quarterbacks who could steal the spotlight. With NFL-caliber arms returning and a handful of rising stars ready to break out, the race to lead the conference in passing yards is shaping up to be one of the season’s most exciting storylines. Let’s breakdown the SEC Passing Leader Odds.
SEC Passing Yards Title Odds for 2026
LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier enters as the overwhelming favorite according to oddsmakers from BetOnline. But he’s far from alone. Arch Manning is stepping into the national spotlight in Austin. Ty Simpson looks to bring Alabama back to dominance through the air. Moreover, young guns like DJ Lagway and LaNorris Sellers are poised to take major Year 2 leaps.
Garrett Nussmeier (LSU): −150
Blake Shapen (Mississippi State): +400
Arch Manning (Texas): +700
Ty Simpson (Alabama): +900
DJ Lagway (Florida): +1200
Gunner Stockton (Georgia): +2000
Austin Simmons (Mississippi): +2200
Taylen Green (Arkansas): +2200
Jackson Arnold (Auburn): +2800
LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): +2800
Beau Pribula (Missouri): +4000
John Mateer (Oklahoma): +5000
Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt): +6600
Marcel Reed (Texas A&M): +6600
Joey Aguilar (Tennessee): +8000
Zach Calzada (Kentucky): +10000
Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) – Clear Heavy Favorite
With −150 odds, Garrett Nussmeier stands out as the dominant favorite to repeat as the SEC’s passing yards leader in 2026. In 2024, Nussmeier piled up 4,052 yards. This ranked him fifth nationally and comfortably leading returning quarterbacks in FBS. He was also second in single-season passing yards in LSU history, trailing only Joe Burrow’s SEC-record 2019 mark.
Analysts rave about his arm strength, quick release, and elite “money‑down” effectiveness. His conversion rates on critical downs outpace all other SEC QBs with high dropback volume. He’s back for his senior year after forgoing the NFL draft, with a revamped receiver room. This includes OL transfer support and weapons like Nic Anderson and Barion Brown lined up to help him succeed.
SEC Passing Yards Title Odds Top Challengers
Blake Shapen (Mississippi State) – +400
While not widely covered in scouting media yet, Shapen’s recent success and offensive continuity position him as the second-most viable challenger. He’ll aim to capitalize on a Sun Belt–heavy 2025 spring training. Additionally, there’s a potential uptick in passing volume from MSU’s pro-style scheme.
Arch Manning (Texas) – +700
As Texas’s heir apparent, Manning enters his second year as starter. Though his first two starts were limited, the program’s offensive line and weapons offer ample opportunity. This setup promises a high-volume passing year.
Ty Simpson (Alabama) – +900
Simpson is entrenched in Alabama’s dynamic offense. With elite running support and a playbook geared toward high-efficiency throws, he’s capable of challenging for yardage supremacy. However, this depends on him staying healthy and maintaining starter status.
DJ Lagway (Florida) – +1200
Florida’s rising sophomore quarterback enters his second year leading an offense that last season generated nearly 2,000 passing yards and a strong record. Lagway’s first season saw impressive efficiency and SEC-wide recognition. Florida expects growth in his sophomore campaign.
Deep Sleeper Options
LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) – Freshman of the Year in 2024 and an All-SEC choice, Sellers earned significant hype for South Carolina entering 2025. At +2800, he could surprise. This is especially possible if the Gamecocks lean on him heavily.
Jackson Arnold (Auburn) – The former Oklahoma signee offers upside and is still developing in his second SEC season. A strong offensive environment in Auburn might give him passer’s volume needed to hit +2800 territory.
Taylen Green (Arkansas) – Known for his arm and athleticism, Green threw 3,154 yards in 2024 and carries momentum into year two (+2200). However, Arkansas’s run-heavy identity may limit volume.
Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) – SEC Newcomer of the Year in 2024, Pavia had solid volume in Vanderbilt’s dual-threat, run-first scheme. At +6600, he offers low-cost upside if Vanderbilt shifts to a more pass-heavy offense.
SEC Passing Yards Title Odds Final Take
With the shortest odds in the field, Garrett Nussmeier is the clear favorite to claim SEC passing yardage supremacy in 2026. His combination of proven volume, experience, and supporting cast is unmatched among his peers. While challengers like Shapen, Manning, and Simpson have solid profiles, each would need sustained high output and favorable offensive systems to catch Nussmeier.
Keep an eye on Lagway, Sellers, Arnold, and Green. Each possesses real breakout potential if their offenses lean into the pass game. But unless those schemes shift significantly, Nussmeier is positioned to cruise to the title once again.