Last Updated on August 4, 2025 7:05 am by Anthony Rome
Boston enters Fenway Park riding a busy but rewarding stretch, having swept Houston in convincing fashion and winning seven of their last eight games. They sit at 62–51 overall and boast a 37–21 home record—one of the best in the AL East. Meanwhile the Royals, at 56–56, are treading .500 waters in the AL Central. They’ve won four of their last five, including a 7–4 walk-off over Toronto, and continue to ride the steady arms in their rotation despite middling offensive. What’s the best bet in tonight’s Royals vs. Red Sox matchup?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
7:10 p.m. ET, Monday, August 4, 2025
Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Royals vs. Red Sox Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Red Sox are -154 moneyline favorites to beat the Royals, who are +139 moneyline underdogs. The total, meanwhile, is sitting at 9.5 runs.
Royals vs. Red Sox Public Betting: Bettors Love Boston
As of this writing, our MLB Public Betting Page shows that 69% of the bets are on the Red Sox moneyline. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Pitching Matchup
Bailey Falter, starting for Kansas City, brings a 7–5 record with a 3.73 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over roughly 113 innings. Since joining from Pittsburgh, he’s posted an encouraging 2.93 ERA through 16 May–July starts, though his career numbers against Boston aren’t great (7.94 ERA in limited work).
On the other side, Brayan Bello takes the mound for Boston, also 7–5 but with a superior 3.19 ERA, 83 strikeouts and a slightly higher 1.28 WHIP over 110 innings. He’s been particularly sharp recently, rolling to a 2.50 ERA in his last eight starts. Against Kansas City, Bello is 1–0 with a 3.57 ERA in three prior outings totaling nearly 18 innings.
Matchup Dynamics
Boston’s offense leads the way in the AL, ranking fourth in runs scored, with 140 home runs and a team batting average around .253. Their on-base percentage is particularly strong at .323, third-best in the league. Standouts include Trevor Story (18 HR, 69 RBI), Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu—all reliable sources of power and consistency.
The Royals’ offense is less volatile. They average just 3.7 runs per game, have only 97 home runs, and lean heavily on contact—one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB. Their team ERA of 3.53 is elite, but without more pop from the lineup, they struggle to string enough runs together. Key contributors like Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez provide timely hits but not sustained power output.
Royals vs. Red Sox MLB BETTING PREDICTION
With Bello’s recent consistency, Boston’s formidable home offense, and the Royals’ modest run-production ceiling, the edge clearly belongs to the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Falter may keep them in it early, but Boston’s lineup should find enough traction against contact-heavy offerings.
Final score projection: Boston Red Sox 6, Kansas City Royals 3.
I’d expect the total to flirt with the under on 9 or 9.5, especially given both bullpens could emerge late, but Boston should win comfortably.
Royals vs. Red Sox MLB Playoffs Prediction: BOSTON RED SOX -154