Last Updated on July 15, 2025 10:46 pm by Anthony Rome
As the WNBA heads into its All‑Star break, two of the league’s top teams face off in a key Western Conference battle. The Phoenix Mercury (15‑6) visit the Minnesota Lynx (19‑4), who are unbeaten at home (11‑0), for a crucial matchup that could shape playoff positioning. It’s a rematch of their July 9 meeting, which saw Phoenix pull out a nail-biter, 79‑71. Minnesota leads the season series 2‑0, including a dominant 88‑65 win on June 3. What’s the best bet in today’s Mercury vs. Lynx matchup?
Mercury vs. Lynx WNBA Event Info
Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx
1:00 p.m. ET, Wednesday, July 16, 2025
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV: Merc+
Mercury vs. Lynx Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Lynx are 11-point home favorites to beat the Mercury. The total, meanwhile, sits at 158.5 points.
Key Storylines & Matchups
1. Impact of Injuries on Phoenix
The Mercury will be without scoring sparkplug Kahleah Copper (hamstring) and remain uncertain on Satou Sabally and Lexi Held. Despite these absences, veterans DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas have stepped up—Bonner racking up 36 points in a recent game, while Thomas notched a triple-double against Dallas.
2. Lynx’s Home Dominance & Balanced Attack
Minnesota boasts the league’s best home record and leads defensively—allowing just ~75 PPG. Napheesa Collier is playing MVP-level basketball (≈24 PPG, 7.7 RPG), while Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride provide strong secondary scoring and playmaking.
3. Style Contrast
Phoenix ranks 2nd in pace, 6th in FG%, and 1st in 3‑point shooting (34.8%). Minnesota counters with elite efficiency, top FG% (45.9%), and a suffocating defense that thrives on limiting second-chance points.
Statistical Comparison
Stat Phoenix Mercury Minnesota Lynx
Record 15‑6 (5‑3 road) 19‑4 (11‑0 home)
PPG ~84.0 PPG ~84.1 PPG
FG% / 3PT% 43.6% / 34.8% 45.9% / 34.7%
FT% ~78–80% ~80.5%
Defense (PPG Allowed) ~79.3 PPG ~75.3 PPG
Rebounds (TRB) ~33.6 TRB ~33.6 TRB
Assists ~20.7 APG ~23.4 APG
Turnovers ~13.0 TO ~13.5 TO
X‑Factors
Interior Battle: Collier in the paint versus an undermanned Phoenix frontline—if Collier dominates, Minnesota gains control.
Bench Contributions: Phoenix has relied on veterans like Bonner and Whitcomb; Minnesota’s depth remains more consistent.
Game Tempo: The Lynx must stay disciplined to slow down Phoenix’s pace and limit transition chances.
Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction
This is a classic clash: Phoenix, resilient despite injuries, meets a red-hot, deeply balanced Lynx squad. Minnesota’s home court strength, top-tier defense, and superior depth give them the edge. Phoenix will fight hard and can keep it competitive early, but unless Sabally or Copper suit up, the Lynx seem poised for a statement win.
Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction: PHOENIX MERCURY +11