Last Updated on May 4, 2025 6:54 am by Anthony Rome
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the Wurth 400, an intermediate-track battle that traditionally emphasizes aero balance, long-run speed, and track position. Which drivers should bettors fade? Which ones are worth following this afternoon in Texas?
Wurth 400 Race Information
What: Wurth 400
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
When: 3:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, May 4
Watch: FS1
Distance: 400 miles (267 laps)
Surface: 1.5-mile asphalt oval
Banking: 24° in Turns 1–2, 20° in Turns 3–4
With high speeds and two distinct corners, Texas has become a strategic test—drivers need clean air, disciplined throttle control, and a little help from Lady Luck. The Wurth 400 race could feature long green-flag runs, meaning pit strategy and restarts will play a major role.
Favorites to Watch
Kyle Larson (+375)
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, Larson is the favorite at +375. He has been a force at 1.5-mile tracks throughout his career, and Texas is no exception. He dominated here in 2021, leading 256 of 334 laps in the playoff race. Hendrick Motorsports continues to deliver speed weekly, and Larson’s momentum makes him the man to beat.
Ryan Blaney (+700)
Blaney is the defending fall winner at Texas, taking victory in the 2023 Playoff race. His ability to stay up front and handle long green runs makes him a legitimate threat again this weekend.
Tyler Reddick (+800)
Reddick grabbed his first Cup Series win at Texas in 2022, and the high-speed, slick layout suits his driving style. He’s been fast on intermediates this year, much like every contender in the Wurth 400.
William Byron (+800)
The 2023 season’s dominant intermediate-track driver, Byron won multiple 1.5-mile races and continues to shine on high-speed ovals. He finished in the top 10 in both Texas races since the reconfiguration and brings a complete package.
Mid-Tier Threats
Christopher Bell (+1200) & Denny Hamlin (+1200)
JGR is always a factor at Texas, and both Bell and Hamlin bring experience and tactical acumen. Bell has quietly put together strong 1.5-mile performances, while Hamlin is a two-time Texas winner with elite tire management.
Ty Gibbs (+1400)
Gibbs has been consistently top-10 on intermediates in 2025 and has shown maturity beyond his years. A win feels imminent in the competition at Wurth 400, and Texas is the type of track where a fast start can carry him to a career breakthrough.
Austin Cindric (+1800) & Carson Hocevar (+1800)
Cindric’s shorter odds reflect Penske’s strong package at Texas, but he has yet to show dominant speed here. Hocevar’s value is intriguing—he’s been running top 15 in various races including the Wurth 400, and showing improved pace at high-speed ovals.
Value Picks & Sleepers
Chase Elliott (+2000)
While not traditionally dominant at Texas, Elliott finished 6th in this race in 2023 and has been improving on intermediates this year. Hendrick’s speed puts him in play if he qualifies well.
Brad Keselowski (+3500)
RFK Racing has turned a corner in 2025, and Keselowski has the experience to make strategy work in a chaotic race. He’s a sleeper to crack the top five if cautions fall his way.
Kyle Busch (+3500)
Busch has four Cup wins at Texas—his most at any track—and if he can shake off inconsistency, he’s a serious threat. Hard to ignore at this price point.
Ross Chastain (+4000)
Chastain has a top-3 finish here and Trackhouse has been solid on intermediates. He’s aggressive enough to capitalize on late-race restarts and isn’t afraid to make bold moves during the Wurth 400.
Drivers to Fade
Austin Dillon (+10000): Outside of a fluke win in 2020, he’s struggled to find pace here.
Michael McDowell (+15000): Texas doesn’t suit his driving style or Front Row’s aero package.
Daniel Suárez (+8000): Inconsistent on intermediates and hasn’t cracked the top 10 at Texas since 2019.
Key Factors for Texas
Clean Air & Track Position: Texas is one of the most aero-sensitive tracks. Passing is difficult due to the challenging conditions of the Wurth 400, especially in dirty air.
Pit Strategy: With long green-flag runs possible, two-tire and fuel-only stops could shake things up.
Restarts: Wide frontstretch offers opportunity—but also chaos. Getting through turn 1 cleanly is critical.
Wurth 400 Prediction:
Winner: Kyle Larson (+375)
With a strong history at Texas and dominant intermediate pace, Larson is set up for another Wurth 400 high-speed masterclass. Expect him to lead the most laps and control the race from the front.
Best Value: Ross Chastain (+4000)
You’re getting long odds on a driver with legitimate upside at a track where restarts matter. He can muscle his way to the front late and pounce if chaos strikes.
Wildcard: Ty Gibbs (+1400)
Running better every week and now looking like a future star. If he nails pit cycles and gets clean air, Gibbs could grab his first win at the Wurth 400.