NFL Wild Card Playoff Betting Tips
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) – The NFL playoffs are here and this is the time where most handicappers tend to fail because they look at the regular season as a barometer.
View Dave Mathews Expert Picks
When handicapping the NFL playoffs, the key is understanding that this is a different animal than the regular season. Certain teams are built to play in January and others will falter. Let’s take a look at some of key factors for successful handicapping in the playoffs.
Defense wins championships. If you take a look at the top teams in the leagueĀ going into the playoffs, most of them are in the top 10 in defense. Seattle,Ā Carolina, Cincinnati, New Orleans and San Francisco are the top five teams inĀ fewest yards allowed per game and they are in postseason. Denver sits at 19th,Ā San Diego at 23rd,Ā Kansas City at 24th and Green Bay atĀ 25th although the Chiefs allow just 19.1 points per game. The rules helpĀ the offense but those defenses at the top of the league seem to manage justĀ fine. A team like Kansas City is unique because they have two great passĀ rushers in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, so they rely more on getting to theĀ quarterback and forcing turnovers, then they do in just stopping teamsĀ cold.
Injuries may play a factor. If Dallas made the playoffs, they certainly wouldĀ have been an underdog with Kyle Orton at quarterback. Check the injury reportsĀ and make sure key players were not hurt in the season finale. Keep checkingĀ the practice report during the week to make sure key starters are playing. IfĀ they are not, that could alter a team’s game plan. Green Bay is in theĀ playoffs because Aaron Rodgers returned, but can they sustain a long runĀ without their best linebacker, Clay Matthews, who has a thumb injury. InĀ 10 games without Matthews, opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 2,557 yardsĀ and 18 touchdowns with nine picks. The Packers average two sacks per gameĀ without Matthews. But don’t get too caught up in nagging injuries,Ā because a player that sits out a game in October due to a sprain, will playĀ when it matters in January. Some of them may have sat out the finale toĀ prepare for this game so make sure you are caught up with all theĀ situations.
The key is finding mismatches. A good running team that faces a bad run defenseĀ normally will have a huge advantage. A perfect example of this is Green BayĀ has the 25th-ranked rushing defense and they will host San Francisco, who hasĀ the third-ranked rushing offense. You might find a team that is weak on passĀ defense against a team that has a strong passing team. Denver is certainly oneĀ of those teams that will be tough to stop through the air, but if they meet upĀ with a great secondary, they might have issues.
Now that you have fewer games to check out, you should have an easier time handicapping if you spend your free time researching each matchup. Focus on these three tips and you’ll have an easier time winning this postseason.
For More of The Best Expert Picks and Analysis Check Out All The Handicappers at TheSpread Insiders!