As Brett Favre puts his 40th birthday in the rearview mirror, fantasy football players are wondering the same thing everybody else is: Can he really keep doing this?
He’s off to a blistering start for the unbeaten Vikings, with 12 touchdowns, four multiple-TD games and an average of 270 yards in the past four contests. That’s enough for some fantasy players to plug him into the starting lineup, or at least consider it most weeks.
Yet recent history shows fantasy players – just like Favre’s real employers – need to be wary of a long-term relationship these days. In his final four seasons as a 30-ish QB, he’s generally flopped during the late-season stretch when fantasy players are making a playoff run.
Over the past four years, Favre has totaled 45 TD passes and 27 interceptions in his first six games. But in his final six games of the season during that span, his totals dropped to 20 touchdowns and 40 interceptions. Last year and in 2006, he only had one multiple-TD game in his final six. He didn’t have any in 2005.
how long. Meanwhile, here are some other players to start and to avoid in Week 7:
QUARTERBACKS
TAKE A SHOT:
-Kurt Warner’s back at the site of his six-turnover disaster last year and faces the Giants’ top-ranked pass defense, but don’t bench him. The New York secondary has some big problems, and the Cardinals are 2-0 on the road with Warner averaging 255 yards and two scores.
-Atlanta’s Matt Ryan could be in for a huge game against the Cowboys’ 26th-ranked pass defenses. Dallas has shown signs of defensive life recently – against Kansas City and Carolina.
-Jay Cutler has four straight games with multiple TDs despite wearing a Bears helmet that seems way too big. He faces Cincinnati’s No. 28 pass defense that’s without Antwan Odom, who has eight of the team’s 16 sacks.
-Kansas City’s Matt Cassel might make a decent bye-week fill-in against the Chargers. Neither team can stop anybody, and chances are Cassel will be mounting a comeback bid.
BACK AWAY SLOWLY AND NOBODY GETS HURT:
Please, in the name of John David Booty, don’t start these guys:
-Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer has become pretty unreliable, with just one TD in three of his past four games. He may also want to hand off to fired Bear Cedric Benson against Chicago.
ility) to throw in their handoff festival.
-Pickins are slim for bye-week replacement QBs, which is the only reason for this obvious observation: Don’t go thinking JaMarcus Russell is competent after a game without high school-like stats.
RUNNING BACKS
ALL DAY LONG:
-Is it time to dust off ill-advised first-round pick LaDainian Tomlinson? He might be able to recapture some old form against the dreadful Chiefs, and Chargers coach Norv Turner may want to throw him a few goal-line bones after leaving him on the bench Monday night.
-In other news about worn-down guys who were awesome fantasy backs a few years ago, consider Kansas City’s Larry Johnson against the Chargers. Last week’s outburst of positive yardage pumped his yards per carry all the way up to 2.7.
-The Cardinals’ No. 1 run defense (59.6 yards a game) will surely focus on trying to keep massive Brandon Jacobs under control, so it might be a good time to start the slippery Ahmad Bradshaw. He’s scored three TDs the past two weeks.
-The Panthers and Bills both have two good backs and can’t stop other running backs. So start Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart in a throwback game that might not include the forward pass.
RED FLAGS:
-Saints offensive genius Sean Payton is proving too smart for us simple fantasy football geeks. Will Mike Bell get all the short TD runs? Pierre Thomas? Reggie Bush? If you have a better RB option, it might be a good time to bench Thomas until this mystery unravels.
-Suggesting the bench for Chicago’s Matt Forte was unthinkable before the season, especially against the Bengals. But how long can you stick with a guy who’s averaging 2.3 yards with no scores against everybody but Detroit?
-Sure, Clinton Portis had 100 yards last week, somebody else is calling the plays in Washington and he’s scored in three straight games against the Eagles, but stay away from the Redskins (unless your team awards extra points when your guys get tackled for safeties).
WIDE RECEIVERS
THROW HIM THE DARN BALL:
-Dwayne Bowe’s getting into a groove in Kansas City, going for 100 yards or a TD four times now. He had 6 catches in each of his games against the Chargers last year and scored once.
-At least Aaron Rodgers is looking for Greg Jennings a bit before getting sacked, throwing his way 9 times. Jennings hasn’t scored since the opener, but surely that’ll change against the Browns.
-In other hapless defense news, the Rams should offer up a large batch of touchdowns to the Colts. This looks like another one of those everybody-gets-a-score games, so keep rolling the dice on Austin Collie.
dney Rice (176 yards last week, 2 TDs in past 4 weeks).
SHOW HIM THE DARN BENCH:
-Guys named Steve Smith may still be worth starting at times, but they’re no longer no-brainers. The one in New York hasn’t done squat the past two weeks, and the Carolina one is rather angrily trapped in an offense that may never be able to pass effectively again.
-The Cowboys’ Miles Austin could end up being a decent receiver and maybe even Tony Romo’s go-to guy, but for now remember he piled up 250 yards in a game when No. 1 receiver Roy Williams was out. Williams returns this week.
-Mohamed Massaquoi might seem a bye-week option after his 5-catch day last week. But he’s a Brown. Don’t do that to yourself.
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BYES THIS WEEK: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee.
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FREE AGENT SHOPPING LIST: WR Lance Moore (TD), RB Laurence Maroney (123 yards, TD), WR Hakeem Nicks (114 yards, TD), WR Sidney Rice (176 yards), RB Mike Bell (TD), TE Tony Scheffler (101 yards, TD), RB Justin Fargas (87 yards), WR Chaz Schilens (back from injury).
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WHAT DO I KNOW?
Greg Jennings (0 TDs).
Big Misses: I was amazingly wrong by expecting storied defenses to stop Joe Flacco (385 yards, 2 TDs) and Brett Favre (3 TDs). I also expected good things from Matt Hasselbeck (112 yards, INT), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (34 yards), and for some reason Braylon Edwards (40 yards) and Jeremy Maclin (6 yards).
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