Packers vs. Lions Pick
The action on Thanksgiving Day kicks off with a contest between NFC North rivals when the Detroit Lions host the Green Bay Packers at 12:30PM ET.
The Packers hung on to beat the 49ers 30-24 as a 6-point favorite in Week 11, while the combined score went over the posted total of 42. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw for 344 yards with a pair of touchdowns for Green Bay, while Ryan Grant rushed for 129 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries.
The Lions edged the Browns 38-37 as a 3-point favorite in Week 11, while the combined score went over the posted total of 37.5. Rookie signal caller Matthew Stafford threw for 4,222 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions for Detroit, while Calvin Johnson hauled in seven passes for 161 yards and a touchdown.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made the Packers 11-point favorites over the Lions in Week 11. The over/under total for this game has been set at 47.5.
The Lions have major issues heading into this game as both Stafford and Johnson (the team’s best offensive players) are expected to miss the contest due to injuries. Daunte Culpepper will start the game for Detroit, which means plenty of three-and-outs and turnovers are sure to follow.
Green Bay is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games when playing Detroit and 4-1 in its last five games when playing on the road against the Lions. When these two teams met earlier this season, the Packers shut the Lions out, 26-0.
The Lions simply don’t have enough offensive playmakers to keep this game close throughout all four quarters. The Packers’ offensive line is a mess, but Detroit won’t be able to contain Greg Jennings and Donald Driver on the outside, which means Rodgers is set up to have a big day.
Our free pick prediction for this contest is Green Bay –11 and the under 47.5. Detroit isn’t going to put 38 points on the board this weekend without Stafford and Johnson.
Our NFL Week 12 Free Pick for this matchup is: GREEN BAY PACKERS -11 and UNDER 47.5.
103 Green Bay Packers –11 Over 47.5
104 Detroit Lions +11 Under 47.5
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games
[TE] 09/06/2009 - Evan Moore IR ( Undisclosed )
[CB] 09/06/2009 - Pat Lee IR ( Knee )
[DT] 09/05/2009 - Justin Harrell IR ( Back )
[WR] 10/26/2009 - Brett Swain IR ( Knee )
[C] 11/07/2009 - Jason Spitz IR ( Back )
[KR/CB] 10/06/2009 - Will Blackmon IR ( Knee )
[RB] 10/21/2009 - DeShawn Wynn IR ( Knee )
[TE] 11/18/2009 - Jermichael Finley is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. San Francisco ( Knee )
[LB] 11/17/2009 - Brandon Chillar is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. San Francisco ( Hand )
[OT] 11/18/2009 - Mark Tauscher is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. San Francisco ( Knee )
[LB] 11/16/2009 - Aaron Kampman is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. San Francisco ( Concussion )
[LB] 11/19/2009 - Brady Poppinga is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. San Francisco ( Quad )
[OL] 11/15/2009 - Daryn Colledge injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. San Francisco ( Leg )
[FB] 11/17/2009 - John Kuhn doubtful Sunday vs. San Francisco ( Hand )
[C] 11/19/2009 - Scott Wells is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. San Francisco ( Concussion )
[OL] 08/07/2009 - Damion Cook IR ( Tricep )
[DE] 08/24/2009 - Jared DeVries IR ( Achilles )
[LB] 08/18/2009 - Cody Spencer IR ( Knee )
[SS] 08/20/2009 - Daniel Bullocks IR ( Knee )
[S] 10/13/2009 - Eric King IR ( Shoulder )
[WR] 10/05/2009 - Adam Jennings IR ( Ankle )
[DE] 10/22/2009 - Copeland Bryan IR ( Leg )
[CB] 11/02/2009 - Demarcus Faggins IR ( Upper Body )
[LB] 11/15/2009 - Ernie Sims "?" Sunday vs. Cleveland ( Leg )
[LB] 11/15/2009 - Larry Foote "?" Sunday vs. Cleveland ( Wrist )
[OL] 11/17/2009 - Stephen Peterman out indefinitely ( Ankle )
[S] 11/18/2009 - Marquand Manuel IR ( Shoulder )
[S] 11/16/2009 - Kalvin Pearson injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Cleveland ( Hamstring )
[CB] 11/16/2009 - Jack Williams out for season ( Knee )
[WR] 11/16/2009 - Derrick Williams injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Cleveland ( Hip )
[DE] 11/18/2009 - Dwayne White "?" Sunday vs. Cleveland ( Toe )
Posted: 11/26/09 7:00AM ET