Patriots vs. Colts Pick

The game of the week is in Indianapolis as Peyton Manning and the undefeated Colts host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots at 8:20PM ET.

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The Patriots beat the Dolphins 27-17 as an 11-point favorite in Week 9, while the combined score fell under the posted total of 47. Tom Brady threw for 332 yards with a touchdown and an interception for New England, while Randy Moss hauled in six passes for 147 yards and a touchdown in the victory.

The Colts beat the Texans 20-17 as a 7.5-point favorite in Week 9, as the combined score fell under the posted total of 50.5. Peyton Manning threw for 318 yards with a touchdown and an interception for Indianapolis, while tight end caught a whopping 14 passes for 119 yards in the win.

Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Colts 3-point favorites over the Patriots in Week 10. The over/under total for this game has been established at 50 points.

New England is 15-2-1 against the spread in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis and 15-6 staight up in its last five games playing the Colts. The under has hit in four of Indianapolis’s last six games when playing the Patriots and in four of the Colts’ last five games at home.

The Colts have failed to cover the past two weeks at home and while they remain undefeated, they’ve flittered with suffering their first loss all season the past two games. What better team to knock Indy off than New England, which has owned the Colts for most of the decade.

Bill Belichick just has an affect on Manning and we love getting points with the Patriots. As long as New England can establish a running game, we like the Pats’ chances of winning outright.

We see a close, tough battle and love the under 50; both teams have better defenses than they’re given credit for.

Our NFL Week 10 Free Pick for this matchup is: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3 and OVER 50.

Patriots at Colts Current Odds

239 New England Patriots +3 Over 50

240 Indianapolis Colts –3 Under 50

NFL Week 10 Betting Trends

New England is 15-2-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

NFL Week 10 Injury Report

NEW ENGLAND

[LB] 08/26/2009 - Tyrone McKenzie IR ( Knee )

[OL] 09/05/2009 - George Bussey IR ( Knee )

[WR] 10/21/2009 - Julian Edelman out indefinitely ( Arm )

[RB] 10/08/2009 - Fred Taylor out at least 6-8 weeks ( Ankle )

[RB] 11/12/2009 - Sammy Morris is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Indianapolis ( Knee )

[OT] 11/12/2009 - Matt Light is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Indianapolis ( Knee )

[DE] 11/03/2009 - Jarvis Green out indefinitely ( Knee )

[DB] 11/08/2009 - Jonathan Wilhite "?" Sunday vs. Indianapolis ( Flu )

[C] 11/12/2009 - Dan Koppen is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Indianapolis ( Knee )

[SS] 11/12/2009 - Brandon Meriweather is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Indianapolis ( Foot )

INDIANAPOLIS

[WR] 11/06/2009 - Anthony Gonzalez out indefinitely ( Knee )

[PK] 10/14/2009 - Adam Vinatieri expected to miss up to 6 weeks ( Knee )

[CB] 11/05/2009 - Marlin Jackson IR ( Knee )

[RB] 11/08/2009 - Donald Brown "?" Sunday vs. New England ( Shoulder )

[CB] 11/06/2009 - Kelvin Hayden is downgraded to expected to miss 4 weeks ( Leg )

[LB] 11/04/2009 - Tyjuan Hagler IR ( Bicep )

[DB] 11/08/2009 - Bob Sanders IR ( Elbow )

[WR] 11/08/2009 - Austin Collie injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. New England ( Upper Body )

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Posted: 11/15/09 5:30PM ET

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