Ravens vs. Bengals Pick
AFC North rivals clash in Cincinnati this Sunday when the Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens in a pivotal divisional matchup at 1:00PM ET.
The Ravens are coming off a huge win over the Broncos last Sunday as they beat Denver 30-7 to cover the 4.5-point spread. Joe Flacco threw for 175 yards with a touchdown, while Ray Rice rushed for 84 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries in the win.
The Bengals had last week off, but crushed the Bears 45-10 as a 2-point underdog in Week 7. Carson Palmer threw for 233 yards with five touchdowns in the win, while Chad Ochocinco hauled in 10 passes for 118 yard and two touchdowns.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Ravens 3-point road favorites in Sunday’s game against the Bengals. The over/under total for this matchup has been set at 43.5 points.
The trends favor the Ravens in this matchup, who are 5-2 against the spread this season and are 7-3 ATS after outgaining their opponent the previous week. That said, Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and 5-1 straight up in its last six, making them a decent play as a home underdog.
Baltimore hasn’t had much luck in Cincinnati outside of a 34-3 win in 2008. They lost to Bengals on the road 27-20 in 2007, 13-7 in 2006 and 42-29 in 2005. For whatever reason, the Ravens just haven’t played well in Cincinnati over the years, even when they’ve had good teams.
The Bengals have already proven that they can beat the Ravens this season and will no doubt test Baltimore’s weak secondary. Palmer and Ochocinco should have decent games again, as should running back Cedric Benson, whom is having himself an outstanding season.
The public should hop on the Ravens after their impressive win last week at home against Denver, so hold off if you’re picking Cincinnati in this matchup as the point spread should hopefully rise. If you can get the Bengals at 4 or even 3.5, that would be a solid value for you because this is a three-point game either way.
We like the Bengals in this matchup and also pick the score to go over the posted total of 42.5. The total has gone over in four of Baltimore’s last five games on the road and in four of Cincinnati’s last six games.
Our NFL Week 9 Free Pick for this matchup is: CINCINNATI BENGALS +3 and OVER 42.5.
405 Baltimore Ravens –3 Over 43.5
406 Cincinnati Bengals +3 Under 43.5
Baltimore is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games
Baltimore is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
[OT] 08/04/2009 - Adam Terry IR ( Knee )
[CB] 10/19/2009 - Samari Rolle IR ( Neck )
[WR] 08/14/2009 - Marcus Smith IR ( ACL )
[DL] 08/15/2009 - Lamar Divens IR ( Hip )
[LB] 09/06/2009 - Jason Phillips IR ( Knee )
[LB] 10/05/2009 - Brendon Ayanbadejo IR ( Quad )
[DL] 11/01/2009 - Haloti Ngata injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Cincinnati ( Ankle )
[TE] 08/03/2009 - Reggie Kelly IR ( Achilles )
[OT] 11/01/2009 - Andre Smith is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Foot )
[WR] 09/06/2009 - Antonio Chatman IR ( Ankle )
[TE] 08/31/2009 - Ben Utecht IR ( Concussion )
[C] 08/24/2009 - Dan Santucci IR ( Foot )
[fb] 11/01/2009 - Jeremi Johnson injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Knee )
[S] 11/01/2009 - Roy L Williams is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Forearm )
[rb] 11/01/2009 - Bernard Scott injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Baltimore ( Knee )
[DE] 10/20/2009 - Antwan Odom IR ( Achilles )
Posted: 11/8/09 7:05AM ET