Cardinals at Bears Pick
The Arizona Cardinals look to erase an ugly home loss to the Panthers last week when they take on the Chicago Bears at 1:00PM ET on Sunday.
The Cardinals were defeated 34-21 at home by the Panthers last Sunday and failed to cover as 10-point favorites. Kurt Warner threw for 242 yards with two touchdowns and five interceptions in the loss, while Larry Fitzgerald caught six passes for 66 yards.
The Bears crushed the Browns 30-6 as a 12-point favorite in Week 8. Matt Forte rushed for 90 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries, while Jay Cutler threw for 225 yards and an interception.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Bears 3-point favorites over the Cardinals in Week 9. The over/under total for this game has been set at 44.5 points.
On the season, these two teams have identical 4-3 ATS records. The Cardinals hold a slight edge in the head to head matchup with a 2-1-1 record and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
Sometimes the point spread is too good to be true, but this isn’t one of those times. Crafty bettors will look at this game and immediately jump on Chicago because Arizona is the better team, yet they’re getting points. Usually that sends up a red flag to bettors to go against the grain.
But let’s look at some key factors. Arizona has played better on the road this year (3-0) than at home (1-3) and have the No. 1 run defense in the league. Chicago is coming off a 30-6 win, but it had to be one of the more unimpressive 30-6 wins given that the Bears didn’t play that well benefited from playing against a horrible Browns team.
Forte won’t be able to find much running room against the Cards’ run defense and that will force Chicago to be one-dimensional. That means pressure will be on Cutler and the passing game, which has been inconsistent this season to say the least. We think a couple of turnovers will swing this game in Arizona’s favor and the Cards will earn a cover.
Our free pick for the total in this matchup is the under. The total has gone under in five of Chicago’s last seven games at home.
Our NFL Week 9 Free Pick for this matchup is: ARIZONA CARDINALS +3 and UNDER 44.5.
413 Arizona Cardinals +3 Over 44.5
414 Chicago Bears –3 Under 44.5
Arizona is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
[RB] 08/05/2009 - Justin Green IR ( Knee )
[LB] 09/29/2009 - Cody Brown IR ( Wrist )
[TE] 11/01/2009 - Stephen Spach "?" Sunday vs. Chicago ( Ankle )
[WR] 11/04/2009 - Anquan Boldin is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Chicago ( Ankle )
[RB] 09/06/2009 - Kevin Jones IR ( Ankle )
[LB] 09/14/2009 - Brian Urlacher IR ( Wrist )
[DE] 09/06/2009 - Henry Melton IR ( Ankle )
[LB] 10/21/2009 - Pisa Tinoisamoa IR ( Knee )
[S] 11/02/2009 - Craig Steltz injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Arizona ( Bicep )
Posted: 11/8/09 7:25AM ET