Bengals vs. Patriots Free Pick
In one of the more underrated matchups on Week 1’s schedule in the NFL this week pits two 2009 playoff teams against each other at Foxboro. Let’s breakdown the Cincinnati Bengals–New England Patriots matchup.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have currently list the Patriots as a 4.5-point favorite, while the over/under total has been established at 44.5 points.
Bengals’ strengths vs. Patriots’ weaknesses
The Bengals lacked explosion last year in the passing game, so they selected pass-catching tight end Jermaine Gresham in the first round of April’s draft and signed controversial wideout Terrell Owens to team up with Chad Ochocinco at receiver. Now the passing game can complement an already solid running game in Cincinnati, which features Cedric Benson. The Patriots had a hard time rushing the passer in preseason and I don’t see that changing when the games start to count for real. The Bengals’ offensive line is as solid as they come and quarterback Carson Palmer should have plenty of time to find open receivers in New England’s soft secondary. If Bill Belichick has to commit more players to pressuring Palmer, then somebody in that Cincinnati receiving corps will be open.
Patriots’ strengths vs. Bengals’ weaknesses
The Bengals’ starting safeties (Chris Crocker and Roy Williams) are susceptible in coverage and while their cornerback duo of Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall is outstanding, the secondary still has plenty of soft spots in coverage. That means Tom Brady is sure to find plenty of passing windows to find Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Julian Edelman in the passing game. The Bengals also lack a pass-rush, so Brady should have plenty of time to find open receivers underneath.
Prediction:
I like the over as my main play because neither team can generate a pass rush. That means big plays are bound to happen when defensive backs are in one-on-one coverage and I could see a back and forth game for all four quarters. As far as the spread, the Patriots aren’t good enough right now to be giving a playoff team from a year ago more than a field goal – even in Foxboro. I think the Bengals keep it tight.
2010 NFL Week 1 Free Pick: CINCINNATI BENGALS +4.5 & OVER 44.5