Super Bowl XLV Staff Predictions
ARLINGTON, TX (The Spread) – Kickoff for Super Bowl XLV is just days away, which means it’s time to get down to the nitty-gritty and make some predictions. Continue reading to check out theSpread.com’s staff picks for Super Bowl Sunday!
View Current Super Bowl XLV Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com, the Packers are currently 3-point favorites over the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. The over/under total for this game is sitting at 44.5 points, although that number could go up if the public starts hammering the over (which is expected).
The latest public betting information shows that of the 48,688 wagers that have currently been placed on the Super Bowl, 51% of the public is backing the Steelers +3. Those numbers show just how even a matchup this Sunday’s game is in the eyes of bettors.
Now on to the picks!
Michael Cash: I may regret this but I am going with the public and taking the Steelers at +3. General handicapping theory suggests that, in the majority of situations, to steer clear of following the public consensus. But this might be one of those rare instances when you should buck the system. For me, this matchup comes down to one thing – experience. As much as it’s a cliché and it’s been thrown around in the media all week, the Steelers have been here recently and came away with the spoils. It’s a whirlwind week and having that experience to fall back on I believe will definitely help keep the Steelers focused on the task at hand. My pick is the Steelers +3.
Anthony Rome: When I first saw that the Steelers were underdogs, my initial reaction was to take Pittsburgh. The Steelers a dog? Sign me up. But after giving it more thought over the last week, the Packers are the pick. The Steelers can be had through the air and if the Packers are able to spread Pittsburgh out with three-and-four receiver sets, they’ll be able to keep Dick LeBeau’s base defense off the field. The Packers have struggled all year trying to run the ball, but the good thing about this matchup is that they wouldn’t have been able to run the ball anyway. Pittsburgh has the best run defense in the league, so the guess work is taken out for Mike McCarthy. Besides, James Starks isn’t going to win the Super Bowl for the Packers – Aaron Rodgers is. McCarthy needs to keep the ball in the hands of his best weapon and I think Pittsburgh’s offensive line issues are going to open the door for Clay Matthews and Co. to have a big day. My pick is the Packers –3.
Drew Sharper: For the Super Bowl, I like the Steelers +3 against the Packers. I know Green Bay is all the rage amongst the media, but Green Bay lacks the experience in the Super Bowl that pretty much all of the key Steelers have. You can’t help but play with nerves in your first Super Bowl, and I expect Big Ben and the Steelers’ D to show the poise and composure they need to win. I expect the Steelers to jump out early and hold off Green Bay late for a comfortable 10-point victory. My pick is the Steelers +3.
Blade (theSpread.com Forum Master): I’ve been going back and forth for the last two weeks but the more I look at this game I think Green Bay Packers -3 is the way to go. Aaron Rodgers has been outstanding for the last few months and if the Packers’ offensive line can find a way to slow down the Pittsburgh’s pass rush he should have a field day against the Steelers’ secondary. While Pittsburgh and Ben Roethlisberger have the edge in experience in big games, I think the Packers balanced attack will be too much for the Steelers. Green Bay -3 and a lean to Over 44½ for those looking to play a parlay.
Nate Steele: I’ve gone back and forth when trying to dissect this game, but I suppose that’s why this is the Super Bowl, as both the Steelers and Packers have proved to everyone they deserve to be here. One of the most astounding stats that must be considered is that the Packers have not trailed by more than seven points in any game this season, the first team during the Super Bowl era to achieve that feat. Though it does not mean anything in a one-game setting (as the 2007 New England Patriots figured out when their perfect season disintegrated in the Super Bowl against the Giants), it does show that Green Bay is as competitive and tough to defeat as any squad in the NFL. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, though shaky at times during the NFC Championship win over Chicago, is still widely regarded as one of the NFL’s best – and for good reason. Rodgers could very well take advantage of a Steelers secondary that is only slightly above average, relying heavily on one of the best pass-rushing units in the NFL. I still don’t trust the Green Bay running attack against the stout Pittsburgh rush defense. The Steelers have been up and down in their two playoff games, playing a great second half against Baltimore and a great first half versus the New York Jets. But the ultimate result is the win at the end and Pittsburgh did that with the type of game plan that has suited them well for years. Ben Roethlisberger seemingly always makes plays when Pittsburgh needs him to and that should be no different in this one, but I think the difference will be running back Rashard Mendenhall. I say Mendenhall runs for over 100 yards, the Steelers control the clock and frustrate the Packers defense as their time on the field wears on. Pittsburgh wins outright in my opinion, but I’ll happily take the Steelers +3.
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