NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Texans vs. Patriots Picks & Predictions Print
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Sunday, 13 January 2013 12:00
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Texans vs. Patriots Free Pick

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FOXBORO, NE (The Spread) – The last time the Houston Texans visited the New England Patriots they were blown out. Will the same thing happen this afternoon when the two teams clash in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs?

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Last game: (Dec. 10, 2012). NEW ENGLAND (-5.5) over Houston, 42-14.  Houston (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS, 7-10 O/U) is coming off a solid win over Cincinnati lastweek at home, 19-13, giving 4 in the wild card round. They couldn't play worse than they did on Monday night, Dec. 10. New England (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 11-5 O/U) is coming off two straight wins, including a 28-0 win over Miami in the home finale, to beat the Dolphins, giving 11.5. The Texans travel to Foxborough to take on the Patriots on Sunday at 4:30pmET.

NFL Odds: According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Patriots are 9.5-point favorites versus the Texans while the over/under is currently sitting at 48.5 points. Houston is 13-4 overall and 6-2 on the road this season, while New England is 12-4 overall and 6-2 at home.

Line Movement: The Patriots opened as 9-point favorites but the line has since climbed to 9.5 or even 10 at some online books. As for the total, it opened at 49 but has been bet down to 48.5 at most books.

Public Betting: Of the wagers currently placed on this game, 66% of NFL public bettors currently favor the Patriots. This information is subject to change leading up to kickoff, however, so make sure you click on the link provided for the most up-to-date NFL public betting numbers.

NFL Playoff Free Pick: Take Houston. According to latest NFL trends, Houston is 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games in January, 9-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record,  19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. New England is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points, 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game,  1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win,  1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games and is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 playoff games. The Houston Texans are looking for revenge after they fell at New England on Monday night, Dec. 10, 42-14. The AFC South-champion Texans rebounded with a win over Indianapolis at home. Last week, they defeated sixth-seeded Cincinnati, 19-13.  The Texans outgained Cincinnati, 420 yards to 198. QB Matt Schaub has thrown for over 4,000 yards with 22 TDs and 12 INTs and has a 90.7 qb rating. Arian Foster (1,424yds, 4.1ypc) needs a big game and is certainly capable. The Texans are 8-0 when he rushes for at least 100 yards. The Texans rank 8th in the NFL in rushing (133ypg) and 11th in passing (239.4ypg). Defensively, they rank 7th overall (323.2ypg) and 7th against the run (98ypg). DE J.J. Watt leads the Texans with 21.5 sacks. He also has 81 tackles. CB Jonathan Joseph is the top cover corner with 11 passes defensed and two picks, though he struggled in the first matchup.  The Texans didn't exploit the Patriots pass defense last time. Their defense is ranked 29th against the pass (271.4ypg). Expect the Texans to play the Patriots much tougher than they played them in the first game, thus covering the 9.5.

2013 NFL PLAYOFFS FREE PICK: HOUSTON TEXANS +9.5

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