Alabama vs. Mississippi State College Football Picks & Spread Week 11 Print
Saturday, 14 November 2009 11:00
NCAAF Headline News

High Hopes

After getting past its toughest opponent of the season, No. 3 Alabama now hits the road to face Mississippi State on Saturday at 7PM ET from Davis Wade Stadium.

Bet Alabama at Mississippi State
The Crimson Tide is 9-0 on the season and 6-3 against the spread following a 24-15 win over LSU last weekend. Alabama has covered the spread in every road game this season, but failed to cover in two on its last three games. All of Alabama’s short comings in the betting odds came with it being a 14-point favorite or more.

Mississippi State is 4-5 this year and 5-3 against the spread. The Bulldogs have won two of their last three straight up and covered in three straight games. All but one of Mississippi State’s wins have come on the road. Trends show that Alabama has won six of the last eight meetings in this series, but the Bulldogs have won two of the last three, including the last meeting at Davis Wade Stadium.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made Alabama 12.5-point road favorites over Mississippi State on Saturday night. The over/under total for this game has been established at 43.5.

Picking this game is a challenge, as you have to factor in the potential for a letdown from the Tide after a gritty win against LSU last week. The last three games for Alabama have been decided by 14 points or less and this game is likely to come down to quarterback play.

Greg McElroy is facing the weaker defense of the two as he quarterbacks Alabama against an average Bulldogs’ defense. McElroy is the weak point of the Alabama offense as he has completed just 59 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Tide have Mark Ingram to rely on at running back, with his 1,148 yards and eight touchdowns, but ultimately, McElroy will have to make some big throws for the Tide to cover.

On the flip side, Tyson Lee has struggled mightily for Mississippi State, throwing 11 interceptions with four touchdowns. Anthony Dixon has rushed for 1,001 yards and nine scores for the Bulldogs, but the Tide are holding opponents to less than 70 yards rushing per-game.

The pick in this game looks to be the Tide on paper as the spread is under 14 points, so Alabama doesn’t have to be stellar in order to cover. While McElroy hasn’t been solid, he should get enough cushion from Ingram while Mississippi State will have to completely rely on Lee, who is a turnover machine. Pick Alabama to cover the 12-point spread odds and look for a low scoring affair, as the under looks to also be a good pick.

Our College Football Week 11 Free Pick for this matchup is: ALABAMA -12.5 and UNDER 43.5.
College Football Week 11 Betting Trends
All games in this series since 1992

MISSISSIPPI ST is 12-5 against the spread versus ALABAMA since 1992

ALABAMA is 11-6 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST since 1992

7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992

Games over the last 3 seasons

MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons 

MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons 

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons 

All games played at MISSISSIPPI ST since 1992

MISSISSIPPI ST is 5-3 against the spread versus ALABAMA since 1992

MISSISSIPPI ST is 4-4 straight up against ALABAMA since 1992

4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992

Games played at MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-0 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons 

MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-0 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons 

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Week 11 College Football Injury Report
ALABAMA

[DE] 09/14/2009 - Damion Square out for season ( ACL ) 

[LB] 09/28/2009 - Dont'a Hightower out for season ( Knee ) 

[RB] 09/29/2009 - Jeramie Griffin out for season ( Knee ) 

[RB] 11/08/2009 - Terry Grant "?" Saturday vs. Mississippi St ( Muscle Pull ) 

[WR] 11/08/2009 - Micheal Bowman "?" Saturday vs. Mississippi St ( Knee ) 

[TE] 11/10/2009 - Colin Peek "?" Saturday vs. Mississippi St ( Knee ) 

MISSISSIPPI ST

No significant injuries.
Alabama at Mississippi State Odds
Alabama Crimson Tide -12.5 Over 43.5 (-550)

Mississippi State Bulldogs +12.5 Under 43.5 (+375)
Bet Alabama at Mississippi State
Posted: 11/14/09 4:00PM ET

 

 

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