TCU vs. SDS Pick
No. 6 TCU looks to avoid a slip up in its road to perfection on Saturday when the Horned Frogs face San Diego State at 4PM ET from Qualcomm Stadium.
Bet TCU at San Diego State
TCU is 8-0 on the season and 5-2 against the spread. Five of the Horned Frogs wins have been by 25 points ore more this season. TCU is 4-0 against San Diego State and 4-0 at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego State is 4-4 on the season and 3-5 against the spread. The Aztecs have won two-straight and three of their last four. San Diego State is 3-1 at home, but trends show that it is just 1-3 at home against the spread.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made TCU 24.5-point road favorites over San Diego State on Saturday night. The over/under total for this game has been established at 51.5.
The point spread is the third highest TCU has been given all season, but the Horned Frogs have a clearly superior team to San Diego State. The Horned Frogs are scoring over 35 points per-game behind one of the top rushing attacks in the country. Joseph Turner leads the attack with 499 yards and eight touchdowns, but is one of four rushers that has nearly 300 yards on the ground this season. Andy Dalton is one of those rushers and has also thrown for 1,642 yards and 14 touchdowns. San Diego State has been suspect on defense, giving up 27 points and 350 yards per-game, but the Aztecs haven’t faced an offense that can move the ball like TCU can.
The Aztecs have had success on offense, especially in the passing game where Ryan Lindley has thrown for 2,142 yards and 20 touchdowns, but the Aztecs have not faced a defense up to the caliber of TCU, which is allowing just 11 points and 235 yards per-game. In order to cover the spread, Lindley has to avoid turnovers, as he has 10 interceptions on the season. The Aztecs can’t become one dimensional, as TCU will be able to dominate the game against a pass-heavy opponent that can’t run the ball.
The Horned Frogs have a large spread to cover, but we are picking them to do just that. The Aztecs will likely fall behind early as TCU comes out strong, and the only way we see San Diego State covering the spread is with late touchdowns while trying to play catch up. The Horned Frogs were able to dominate a stronger offense in BYU in their last road trip, and we expect to see TCU do more of the same on Saturday. With the strong offenses, we also suggest picking the over in this game.
Our College Football Week 10 Free Pick for this matchup is: TCU -24.5 and OVER 47.5.
College Football Week 10 Betting Trends
All games in this series since 1992
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-2 against the spread versus TCU since 1992
TCU is 4-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST since 1992
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
All games played at SAN DIEGO ST since 1992
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus TCU since 1992
TCU is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST since 1992
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games played at SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Week 10 College Football Injury Report
TCU
[DE] 11/01/2009 – Ross Forrest "?" Saturday vs. San Diego State ( Arm )
SAN DIEGO ST
[TE] 08/28/2009 – Tony DeMartinis out for season ( Knee )
[RB] 09/29/2009 – Atiyyah Henderson out indefinitely ( Back )
[S] 11/04/2009 – Romeo Horn is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. TCU ( Foot )
[FB] 10/17/2009 – Matthew Kawulok out for season ( Shoulder )
[OL] 11/04/2009 – Alec Johnson is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. TCU ( Knee )
[LB] 11/04/2009 – Logan Ketchum is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. TCU ( Knee )
[WR] 11/02/2009 – Vincent Brown likely out for the remainder of the regular season ( Thumb )
TCU at San Diego State Current Odds
TCU Horned Frogs -24.5 Over 47.5
San Diego State Aztecs +24.5 Under 47.5
Bet TCU at San Diego State
Posted: 11/7/09 2:42PM ET