|NASCAR Lifelock 400 Preview & Picks from Kansas Nextel Cup|
|Written by TheSpread|
|Sunday, 30 September 2007 05:40|
Lifelock 400 Preview
The title sponsor of this race does those radio commercials where the CEO gets on the air and tells you his Social Security Number, his real SSN, he claims, because his product is so awesome at protecting you from fraud, knowing his number wouldn't help you.
Yeah, but I still wouldn't do it.
But it gives me an idea. For this race, NASCAR should make each of the drivers forego their usual car numbers (8 for Dale Earnhardt Jr., 24 for Jeff Gordon, etc.) and instead make them paint their own Social Security Numbers on their car hoods. What better advertisement for LifeLock (a company that will no doubt be the "Mall.com" of 2007 Nextel Cup sponsorship)?
"And here comes the 087-67-9864 car on the outside. Oh, but the 145-98-0908 car isn't giving him any room, and he can't make the pass! Meanwhile, while those two are duking it out, the 120-98-0121 car is catching up!"
Now that's sponsorship.
Last Week: Much better. We followed up our first losing week in two months with straight-up and head-to-head wins at a fun Dover race, as Carl Edwards came through with a +900 victory, and Martin Truex Jr. vanquished Kurt Busch to the tune of -120. For the week, we won two units, and on the season, we're up to a net positive 9.3 units on 42 units wagered (a 22.1% return). (Note that if you eschewed the conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply wagered one unit on every recommendation we give, you'd have netted 7.83 units last week, and for the season you'd be up 34.21 units on 112 units wagered (a 30.5% return). Of course, such a betting pattern is riskier on a week-to-week basis.)
Take Jimmie Johnson (+600), 1/6th unit. J.J. had the best car at Kansas Speedway last season, leading over 100 laps and nearly running away with the event, but the long green-flag runs typical of this place led to a fuel-mileage race, and Johnson wasn't one of the lucky few who didn't have to stop for gas late in the event. That caused him to finish14th, which wasn't at all indicative of how good he was. Considering how strong Johnson almost always is at cookie-cutter tracks, and considering he managed to finish third at Michigan and first and Fontana in the last month, the No. 48 is my favorite to take the checkers Sunday. The fact that he qualified on the pole Friday doesn't hurt.
Take Carl Edwards (+800), 1/6th unit. Edwards won for us last week, and I give him a decent chance of doing it again in Kansas. Edwards won the first Michigan race and finished seventh in the second, then he came in second to Johnson at Fontana last month. He also placed third at Chicagoland, which is perhaps the closest equivalent of any track to Kansas. His last two trips out here to the intermediate speedway in the heartland, Edwards has finished third and sixth. He'll be in it on Sunday.
Take Tony Stewart (+500), 1/6th unit. I'd like to go with a more creative pick here, but Smoke is the favorite for a reason. He won at Chicagoland this summer, and won this race (again, albeit on fuel mileage) last September. There are lots of other guys who can win, but Stewart was chowing down on cookie-cutters when many of this year's Chase drivers were still in short pants. If he's going to win his third points title, Smoke will have to do some good business on this track style, and it begins Sunday.
by Michael Cash - thespread.com - Email Us
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