|NFL Handicapping: How to keep track of offseason activity for betting purposes|
|Written by Jay Dotson|
|Friday, 20 June 2014 15:30|
Stay sharp during the NFL offseason
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) – With football season two months away, let’s take a look at some simple ways for bettors to stay prepared and focused during the offseason.
Let's take a look at a few ways to prepare for the college football season first. One of the biggest keys in looking at college football is to take a look at incoming recruits, while also looking at returning players. This plays an important factor in how much you can look into the previous year's results. A team loaded with seniors could hold value for bettors, where as a team coming in with unproven talent may be overvalued by the odds makers. A rivalry is going to mean more to a team full of seniors compared to a team full of freshmen.
There are also some veteran cappers out there that will tell you a veteran offensive line is important as well, as the performance of the O-line factors into the performance of the entire offensive unit. It's also worth looking at coaching changes, as every coach brings in their own style which could lead to growing pains early in a season. I also tend to take a look at a team's previous season in conference play more so than non conference play. Non conference play can be misleading depending on the strength of schedule.
Let's take a look at a few ways for bettors to prepare for the NFL season. The first item all NFL bettors should take a look at first is to look at their betting results from the previous season, and see what they did well, as well as where they struggled. This is important because it's never easy to get ahead of the books and it's important to keep your betting style evolving in the right direction.
This should go without saying, but it's important to take a look at free agency as every off season teams make moves for better or worse. It's important to look at the free agency as a whole and not just focus on the big flashy signings. Big flashy free agent signings can be a sports bettor’s best friend, as this could create a team to be overvalued, especially early in the season.
I also find it valuable to take a look at the spreads on the regular season wins to get a feel for where the odds makers see a team. It's also important to take a look at incoming rookies. Is the rookie coming in to fill a needed position, or will they have time to develop? These kinds of questions will help you look for the winning edge.
The Colts stand out to me right now as team that may be overvalued early in the season by the betting public. The Colts finished last season top of the AFC South with a record of 11-5, but the over/under on regular season wins stands at 9.5 with the over paying plus money. The Broncos also stand out as they obviously had a monster 13-3 regular season, but the over/under on regular season wins stands at 11.5 with the over paying even money. This tells me that at this point in the offseason, the odds makers aren't expecting quite a strong of a season, which could give sharp bettors good value early on.