|Super Bowl XLVIII Overrated & Underrated Prop Bets: How to spot Value|
|Written by Dave Matthews|
|Wednesday, 29 January 2014 15:00|
XLVIII Overrated & Underrated Props
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ (The Spread) - One of the most exciting factors of betting the Super Bowl is the amazing amount of options to wager on proposition bets.
There are so many prop bets, you tend to get overwhelmed once you go through the hundreds that are available. But let's face the fact about these prop bets. Do you really care how long it will take for Renee Fleming to sing the National Anthem? Most sports fans don't care, but these type of "entertainment props" are there for the casual fans who will tune in just to watch the commercials or the halftime shows. Don't even bother wasting your money on these types of bets.
Another prop bet that used to be cool was the cross sport matchup. When the NBA used to put several games on Super Bowl day, you could bet whether a quarterback could outperform Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant. But there's only one NBA game (Orlando vs. Boston), which is trash. So you are stuck with this great prop bet from Bovada.
What will be higher?
Alex Ovechkin points vs. Detroit Even (1/1)
Seattle sacks vs. Denver -130 (10/13)
Who even cares about this prop bet? Ovechkin is coming off an injured groin and Manning rarely gets sacked so it wouldn't be surprising if both numbers are one or less.
Let's first get to the meat-and-potatoes prop bets involving the game. One of the prop bets that is a bit overrated is the Odds to win the Super Bowl MVP. Most years, the quarterback wins this award, which is voted by the press. The press loves guys like Peyton Manning, who is 11-10 to win the award from Bovada. A quarterback has won four straight and six of the last seven MVP's. If you do like Seattle to win, then betting on Russell Wilson or Marshawn Lynch at 15-4 isn't a bad bet. But if Denver wins and Manning doesn't play poorly, he'll likely win it because it makes a great story just like in Super Bowl XLI, when he won his first Super Bowl and nabbed the award. Dominic Rhodes ran for 113 yards and a score and could easily have won the award-but didn't.
This is a quarterback-driven league and if you focus on signal-callers, you should love the prop bets featuring Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning. Wilson has been very good at taking care of the football and managing the game. He has 26 touchdowns and just nine interceptions on the season, but did fumble on the first play against San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
Here's a good value prop bet:
Russell Wilson (Sea) first pass will be:
Wilson is playing in his first Super Bowl and his just 25 years old. He's a very poised quarterback but he could be nervous. No quarterback wants to throw an interception on his first pass. Look what happened to him on his first scramble in the Championship Game. There's a pretty good chance his first pass will be an incomplete one because he doesn't want to make an error. You can get an even better value with Manning throwing an incompletion on his first pass at +170, but this is his third Super Bowl and the nerves probably won't be quite like Wilson's. Here's a better value prop bet for Manning.
Will Peyton Manning throw an Interception?
The weather is going to be a cold one. It will probably be in the 20's by the second half, Seattle has one of the best secondaries in football and Manning while accurate, doesn't have the strongest arm. Seattle can also put pressure on the quarterback led by Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril.
Here are some more great value prop bets:
1)Will Seattle get a rushing touchdown in the first half?
Seattle has Marshawn "the Beast" Lynch, who rushed for 1,257 yards, 4.2 yards per carry and ran for 12 touchdowns this season. He also has three touchdowns in the postseason and while Denver has played well against the run in the postseason, Seattle will not give up on the run. Wilson also has the ability to run the football with 539 yards and he might be more apt to run out of the pocket instead of just extending plays.
2)Will the game be decided by exactly Three points?
Remember when most Super Bowls were blowouts? That trend stopped in 2002 when New England shocked St. Louis as a 14-point underdog to win, 20-17. Since that year, eight of the 12 Super Bowl have been decided by six points or less. Denver is a 2.5-point favorite and is the top offense going up against the top defense. The game should be a close one.
3)Will Montee Ball score a touchdown?
Ball had 83 touchdowns at Wisconsin and four this year backing up Knowshon Moreno, At 5-10, 215 pounds, Ball is a powerful runner who has 95 rushing yards in two playoff games and also has three receptions. The guy just has a nose for the end zone and with Moreno's propensity for getting injured, Ball could have be one of the major players in this game. Even if Moreno is healthy, he's been getting 10-12 carries and seeing him score a TD in the Super Bowl would not be a surprise.