10/20/2008 Broncos at Patriots By the Numbers Print
Written by Anthony Rome   
Monday, 20 October 2008 05:36

Week 7 in the NFL wraps up tonight when the Denver Broncos head to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots. Let’s take one final look at this matchup and hand out a prediction.

Bet the Broncos at Patriots

Denver Broncos (4-2) at New England Patriots (3-2)

Oddsmakers from online sports book SBG Global has established New England as a 3-point favorite.

Public Betting Trends:

All games in this series since 1992

DENVER is 9-3 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND since 1992

DENVER is 9-3 straight up against NEW ENGLAND since 1992

7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992

Games over the last 3 seasons

DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons 

DENVER is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons 

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

All games played at NEW ENGLAND since 1992

DENVER is 5-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND since 1992

DENVER is 4-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND since 1992

4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992

Games played at NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons.

DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons 

DENVER is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons 

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Team Line Action - Where the money is going!

Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.

As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring Nobody in this game

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in DENVER games 49.8% of the time since 1992. (100-101)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in DENVER games 48.3% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (14-15)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NEW ENGLAND games 45% of the time since 1992. (95-116)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NEW ENGLAND games 42.9% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (15-20)

No Edge.

As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the OVER in this game

The betting public is correct when moving the total in DENVER games 52% of the time since 1992. (116-107)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in DENVER games 61.8% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (21-13)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEW ENGLAND games 53% of the time since 1992. (122-108)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEW ENGLAND games 59.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (22-15)

No Edge.

Prediction:

You look at this game and you might think to yourself, “Why is the better team getting points?” This might be one of those too-good-to-be-true scenarios in the end, but you have to like what Denver brings to the table. Not only have they had success against the Patriots in the past, but New England has looked befuddled without Tom Brady under center. San Diego made Matt Cassel look like a rookie (which he essentially is) last week and Bill Belichick can’t get his defense in order. Not good against a Broncos team that can put points on the board in a hurry. There won’t be a blow out tonight, but we like the Broncos to win outright and we’ll take the gift three points. We predict the Broncos over the Patriots 27-24.  

Bet the Broncos at Patriots

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Posted: 10/20/08 9:40AM

 

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