10/6/2008 Vikings at Saints By The Numbers Print
Written by Anthony Rome   
Monday, 06 October 2008 08:06

Week 5 wraps up tonight when the New Orleans Saints host the struggling Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football. Let’s go inside the matchup and look at the odds, trends and where the money is moving. And better yet, hand out a prediction.

Bet the Vikings at Saints

Kickoff: 8:30 PM ET ESPN, Monday

Odds: Oddsmakers from online sports book SBG Global have established New Orleans as a 3-point favorite. The over/under for tonight’s game has been set at 46.5.

Top Trends:

All games in this series since 1992

MINNESOTA is 5-4 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1992

MINNESOTA is 7-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS since 1992

7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992

All games played at NEW ORLEANS since 1992

MINNESOTA is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1992

MINNESOTA is 2-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS since 1992

2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992

Team Line Action - Where the money is going!

Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.

As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring Nobody in this game

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MINNESOTA games 49% of the time since 1992. (103-107)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MINNESOTA games 44.8% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (13-16)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NEW ORLEANS games 46.6% of the time since 1992. (90-103)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NEW ORLEANS games 45.2% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (14-17)

No Edge.

As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game

The betting public is correct when moving the total in MINNESOTA games 49.3% of the time since 1992. (104-107)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in MINNESOTA games 29% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (9-22)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEW ORLEANS games 48.5% of the time since 1992. (97-103)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEW ORLEANS games 51.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (17-16)

Prediction:

The numbers and trends seem to favor the Vikings, which is why oddsmakers have set the line so low for tonight’s game even though the Saints are the better team. Minnesota has a lot of work to do to live up to the hype that followed them into this season, but they’ve played better than their record indicates. They’ve also faced some decent opponents so far this year and New Orleans is banged up. We’ll go with the numbers and say the Vikings pull off the upset, 23-20 in New Orleans.

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