NFL Free Pick: BUF/DEN

The Denver Broncos look to clinch the AFC West crown this week when they host the struggling Buffalo Bills.

Our team of writers and handicappers break down the matchup and hand out a Free NFL Pick for Week 16.

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Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Broncos -7 point spread favorite. The over/under for this game has been set at 45 total points.

Key Trend: Denver is 0-5 against the spread in its last five games at home and just 2-4 against the spread in its last six games when playing Buffalo. The total has also gone over in five of Buffalo’s last seven games when playing the Broncos.

Key Stat: The Bills are only allowing 203.4 passing yards per game this year and 114.1 yards per game on the ground. Opponents have gashed Denver on the ground this year as the Broncos are allowing 140.1 YPG.

Game Outlook: Even though the Bills have been absolutely terrible over the second half of the season, we just don’t trust Denver – not even with a division title on the line. The Bills actually match up pretty well against the Broncos because they can stop the pass (Denver’s specialty on offense) and they can run the ball (Denver’s weakness on defense has been the ability to stop the run). Buffalo also gets a boost with the return of quarterback Trent Edwards, who replaces the woeful J.P. Losman. Expect a big day from Marshawn Lynch and while Jay Cutler and the Broncos should come away with a win, Buffalo covers the spread in another tightly played game against a playoff contender. For the rest of our Free NFL Pick, see below.

Our Free NFL Pick for the Week 16 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos game is

BUFFALO BILLS +7

TheSpread.com Projected Final Score

Denver Broncos 31

Buffalo Bills 28

We also predict that this game will GO OVER THE TOTAL (45 Sports Interaction.com) SET BY ODDSMAKERS

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Posted: 12/21/08 12:00PM ET

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