NFL Free Pick: IND/JAC

The Thursday night matchup pits two rivals from the AFC South Division when the red-hot Indianapolis Colts travel to Jacksonville to take on the struggling Jaguars.

Our team of writers and handicappers breaks down the matchup and hands out an NFL Free Pick for this NFL Week 16 game.

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Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Colts –6.5 point spread favorite. The over/under for this game has been set at 44 total points.

Key Trend: The Jaguars are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games when playing Indianapolis and 4-2 against the spread in their last six games when playing at home against Indianapolis.

Key Stat: Jacksonville is averaging 110.8 rushing yards per contest this year, while the Colts run defense has not been good, allowing close to 130 yards per game in 2008.

Game Outlook: There’s just something we don’t trust about this line. The Colts are winners of seven in a row, while the Jags have struggled mightily this year. So why isn’t the line greater than a touchdown? Home field advantage only means so much and don’t forget, this is a Jacksonville team that is incredibly beat up along the offensive line and throughout its defense. The line looks too good to be true and while the Jags have struggled this year, they always seem to play the Colts tough and if Indy is without Gary Bracket, Marvin Harrison, Joseph Addai, Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney, than we like the Jags even more. This is one of those times when a team like the Jaguars have no business being in the game with a superior opponent, yet things fall their way and they keep it close. We don’t think Jacksonville wins, but we like the idea of the Jags keeping the game tight against a beat up Indy squad. Remember, this is a Colts team that just allowed a winless Lions squad to score 21 points on them at home. The Jags should find the endzone enough to keep things close. But wait on the line – the public should drive the point spread up and you could get Jacksonville at a touchdown or more. See below for the rest of our NFL Free Pick.

Our Free NFL Pick for the Week 16 matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars game is

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +6.5

TheSpread.com Projected Final Score

Indianapolis Colts 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 23

We also predict that this game will GO OVER THE TOTAL (44 Sports Interaction.com) SET BY ODDSMAKERS

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Posted: 12/18/08 11:00AM ET

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