Free Pick: NE-MIA

AFC East rivals clash in Miami this Sunday when the Dolphins host Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots.

Bet the Patriots at Dolphins

Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Dolphins a -1 point spread favorite. The over/under for this game has been set at 42 total points.

The last time this two teams squared off, the Dolphins used the “Wild Cat” formation to absolutely destroy the Patriots at Foxboro. Chances are New England will be better prepared for Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins’ offense this time around, especially coming off a division loss to the Jets.

No team is hotter than Miami is right now, going 4-1 straight up in its last five games. The Dolphins are also 4-2 against the spread in their last six games when playing New England, and 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games when playing at home against New England.

But while the trends favor Miami, the stats favor New England. The Patriots have scored more points (21.9 to 20.9), have allowed a shade fewer points (19.4 to 19.7), and have a small turnover advantage at –0.2 to –0.7 of Miami. The Patriots also have a better rushing average per game at 132.2 YPC to 117.5 YPC, and have a better pass defense, allowing only 204.1 YPC to Miami’s 222.5 YPC.

We realize the Dolphins are the hotter team, but never bet against Belichick’s Patriots coming off a loss. No team is more prepared following defeat and the Pats are 16-6 against the spread in its last 22 games on the road. And consider this, Miami hasn’t covered the spread the past two weeks, even though they were playing the likes of the Seahawks and Raiders – two struggling teams this year.

Our Free NFL Pick for the Week 12 matchup between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins game is

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +1

TheSpread.com Projected Final Score

New England Patriots 20

Miami Dolphins 17

We also predict that this game will GO OVER THE TOTAL (42 Sportsbook.com) SET BY ODDSMAKERS

Bet the Patriots at Dolphins

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Posted: 11/23/08 8:00AM ET

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