NFL Betting: Can Rams Run the Table?

NFL Betting: Can the Rams Run the Table?

It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Los Angeles Rams have made it through the first half of the 2018 NFL regular season unblemished. The Rams (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) are the only team in the league without a loss on their record. With a relatively soft schedule in front of them, can L.A. win the next eight games and become just the third team in the Super Bowl era to carry an undefeated record into the playoffs?

There’s always a chance. But if you’re going to bet on it, and you want to make a sharp pick, you need to figure out what those chances are. That’s the basic template for how to bet on sports: Assess the probability of an event happening, compare your findings to the odds you’re being given, and decide if you’re getting a good price or not. 

Depending on where you shop for your NFL props and specials, the Rams should be available at around +5000 (that’s 50-to-1) to run the table from here. Is that a good price? Let’s take a look at each remaining game in the schedule, and the likelihood of L.A. keeping their streak alive as the weeks pile up. We’ll be using the Elo-based computer projections at FiveThirtyEight as our guideline for each remaining Rams matchup. Spoiler alert: There’s a very good chance this streak will be over in less than seven days

Week 9: at New Orleans Saints (41 percent chance of victory)

Sunday’s game (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX) at the Superdome figures to be the toughest L.A. will play this year. They opened as 1-point favorites on the NFL odds board at Sportsbook Review; at press time, the Rams are down to +2, which would make them underdogs for the first time all season.

Week 10: vs. Seattle Seahawks (68%)

The Seahawks almost upended the Rams in Week 5 before losing 33-31 as 7.5-point home dogs. They’ll have a harder time winning at the Coliseum, but they still have a 32-percent chance according to FiveThirtyEight, which gives L.A. a 28 percent chance of going 10-0.

Week 11: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (48%)

If you haven’t seen the Pat Mahomes Show yet, you’re missing out. The Chiefs just might be the best team in the league this year – they’re even slight favorites to beat L.A. in Mexico City, leaving our heroes with a 13 percent chance of staying undefeated.

Week 13: at Detroit Lions (62%)

Now we get into the softer part of the Rams schedule. The Lions are the only losing team in the NFC North at 3-4, and they play indoors at Ford Field, which the L.A. contingent (who will be rested after a bye week) should appreciate come December. Their chances of going 12-0: eight percent.

Week 14: at Chicago Bears (63%)

And then you have Soldier Field. The weather could get downright nasty for this one, and the 4-3 Bears might actually be better than these projections would suggest. The Rams are down to five percent to reach 13-0.

Week 15: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (65%)

The defending Super Bowl champions are having an epic Super Bowl hangover. Are they really a 4-4 team, or will the Eagles find their sea legs during the second half? For now, they’re sizeable underdogs at the Coliseum, leaving L.A. with about a 3 percent chance of winning 14 straight.

Week 16: at Arizona Cardinals (75%)

It’s all downhill from here. The 2-6 Cardinals are in rebuild mode with Josh Rosen at quarterback, and the Rams will be extra-motivated to win this one if they’re still undefeated. Their chances of staying that way heading into the holidays: around 2.5 percent.

Week 17: vs. San Francisco 49ers (87%)

It’s first-versus-worst in the NFC West standings, and in the entire league for that matter. Assuming the Rams don’t punt this Week 17 game to rest for the playoffs (it could happen, even if they’re 15-0), given this projection and all the ones before it, their chances of running the table work out to 2.22 percent. That’s about the same as +4400 odds, so if you’re getting +5000 or more, it looks like a bet worth taking – and definitely a fun way to spice things up for the rest of the regular season.

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