Neer vs. Tibau

A featured bout at UFC 104 on Saturday is between UFC lightweights Josh Neer and Gleison Tibau.

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Neer enters the fight as the favorite with a betting line of -125 with Tibau given a line of -105 according to online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com. Here is a closer look at both fighters heading into this bout, which will take place from the Staples Center in Los Angeles, Calif. at 10PM ET on pay-per-view.
Josh Neer (25-8-1)
Strengths
: Neer is just one of those tough guys that likes to fight. He isn’t charismatic or a fan-favorite, but he brings it with each fight. As a fighter out of the Miletich camp, Neer has good wrestling skills and even better submissions. While most of his wins have come by decision, he has had two submission wins in the UFC. Neer has some power, but is more likely to win by TKO with a barrage of strikes rather than win by knockout with one punch.
Weaknesses: Neer is not an elite-level fighter than can overwhelm opponents, which has led to decision losses to Kurt Pellegrino, Nate Diaz, and Josh Burkman. When Neer is put on his back, he has had trouble getting back to his feet, which was a big reason he lost to Pellegrino. Neer just doesn’t have the explosiveness in any area to dominate a fight.
Last Five Fights:
Unanimous decision loss to Kurt Pellegrino at UFC 101 on Aug. 8, 2009

Second round submission win over Mac Danzig at UFC Fight Night 17 on Feb. 7, 2009

Split decision loss to Nate Diaz at UFC Fight Night 15 on Sept. 17, 2008

Unanimous decision win over Din Thomas at UFC Fight Night 13 on April 2, 2008

First round submission win over Nick Sorg at C3 on Oct. 27, 2007
 
Gleison Tibau (29-6):
Strengths: Tibau is a big 155-pounder. When first entering the UFC, Tibau fought at welterweight, but quickly moved down to lightweight to get a size advantage on his opponents, which he has. Tibau has a good jiu jitsu background as well, which he mixes with his wrestling to control fights. In his career, Tibau has nine submission victories.
Weaknesses: Tibau has struggled with guys that have a lot of quickness like Melvin Guillard, Joe Stevenson, and Tyson Griffin. It has not been easy for fighters to finish Tibau, who has been stopped just three times in his career, but Tibau has also struggled to finish fights inside the octagon. Tibau has the skills to become an elite-level fighter, but he has not really evolved with time and added new talents to his overall fighting package.
Last Five Fights:
Split decision loss to Melvin Guillard at Ultimate Fighter Finale 9 on June 20, 2009

Unanimous decision win over Jeremy Stephens at UFC Fight Night 18 on April 1, 2009

First round submission win over Rich Clementi at UFC Fight Night 17 on Feb. 7, 2009

Second round submission loss to Joe Stevenson at UFC 86 on July 5, 2008

Unanimous decision loss to Tyson Griffin at UFC 81 on Feb. 2, 2008.
 
Who will win: Tibau seems to have the size to really dictate where this fight will go. Expect to see him take Neer down and be able to keep him down for a three-round decision win. Neer is just not strong enough to get off his back when Tibau is on top of him and Tibau shouldn’t get submitted by Neer, who doesn’t have the same submission background as him.
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Posted: 10/22/09 11:00PM ET

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