2010 UFC 118 Picks & Predictions – Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

Diaz vs. Davis

One of the featured bouts of Saturday’s UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn 2 pay per-view is a welterweight contest between Nate Diaz and Marcus Davis.

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Diaz enters this bout as the favorite according to online sports book Sportsbook.com. Diaz has a betting line of -205 while Davis comes in with a line of +162. Here is a closer look at both fighters heading into this bout, which will take place from the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts at 10PM ET on Pay Per-View.
Nate Diaz (12-5):
Strengths: Diaz is a tough kid with very strong jiu-jitsu skills and respectable striking ability. His biggest advantage is his length as he has long arms and legs which allow him to create good spacing from his opponents. His jab has been very effective in past fights and against a striker like Davis, will come in handy for Diaz in this fight. Diaz has never been knocked out in his career and is always competitive.
Weaknesses: This is Diaz’ first real test since moving up to the UFC welterweight division. In the past he has struggled to beat guys that stay busier than him and can control him on the ground. Being somewhat think for his height, Diaz doesn’t have the best takedown defense, which has caused him to lose some close decisions as of late.
Last Five Fights:
First round TKO win over Rory Markham at UFC 111 on March 27, 2010

Split decision loss to Gray Maynard at UFC Fight Night 20 on Jan. 11, 2010

Second round submission win over Melvin Guillard at UFC Fight Night 19 on Sept. 16, 2009

Unanimous decision loss to Joe Stevenson at Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale on June 20, 2009

Split decision loss to Clay Guida at UFC 94 on Jan. 31, 2009
 
Marcus Davis (17-6):
Strengths: Davis is a former boxer that has explosive power with both hands. He is short and compact, which makes him very strong. He has shown the ability to take a beating and keep moving forward, which makes him a tough opponent for anyone. His wrestling and submission skills are also on par with the division, but not to the level of Diaz for this fight.
Weaknesses: Davis is just one of those good, but not great fighters. He has some obvious strengths and some obvious weaknesses. Once the fight gets to the ground and Davis is on his back, he doesn’t offer much in terms of defense and getting back to his feet. Also, despite being a boxer, he has some holes in his striking which have led to recent struggles, including a knockout loss to Ben Saunders.
Last Five Fights:
Second round TKO win over Jonathan Goulet at UFC 113 on May 8, 2010

First round KO loss to Ben Saunders at UFC 106 on Nov. 21, 2009

Split decision loss to Dan Hardy at UFC 99 on June 13, 2009

Split decision win over Chris Lytle at UFC 93 on Jan. 17, 2009

Second round submission win over Paul Kelly at UFC 89 on Oct. 18, 2008

Who will win: Davis has the ability to win this fight, especially if Diaz gets over-confident in his striking ability. But, if Diaz plays things smart and sticks to his strengths, he should be able to get the fight to the ground and work a submission on Davis. We like Diaz to take this one in the third round with a choke.
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Posted: 8/28/10 9:00AM ET