UFC 100 Predictions
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to pay-per-view this Saturday with UFC 100, a milestone event of the premiere company in Mixed-Marital Arts.
The main card features five fights, but overall the card has 11 fights scheduled.
Many of the fights have sizeable favorites, but here are some plays that could work out in your favor Saturday night.
Frank Mir +155 over Brock Lesnar
It’s already easy to say Mir can win, since he holds a first round submission victory over Lesnar already. While Lesnar has improved since, so has Mir, whose stand-up game looked vastly improved against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. In Lesnar’s two UFC wins, he has faced two wrestlers that like to fight in the clinch. Lesnar’s most glaring weakness is his inexperience and inability to defend against submissions. Mir has perfected submissions that Lesnar can’t even pronounce and while Lesnar can be overbearing on the ground, Mir will be relentless with submission attempts. If Mir can avoid a big right hand from Lesnar on the feet, this fight is his for the taking and offers a nice haul for bettors at +155.
Dan Henderson -215 over Michael Bisping
Dan Henderson is a favorite in his fight over Michael Bisping and for good reason. In 31 career fights, Henderson has never been knocked out and has only been submitted three times. Thankfully for Henderson, Bisping is not a submission specialist. In Bisping’s eight UFC fights, he has either gone to a decision or won by TKO. Bisping’s worst performances have come against wrestlers: Rashad Evans and his questionable split-decision win over wrestler Matt Hamill. Henderson is a better and more experienced wrestler than either fighters and shouldn’t have much trouble getting Bisping to the ground. Bisping can only hope to win a decision, which he won’t, because of his inability to defend takedowns. With a middleweight title shot awaiting the winner, Henderson won’t come out flat.
The Sure Thing:
Stephan Bonnar -350 over Mark Coleman
Bonnar has never been knocked out in his fighting career and he holds seven submission victories. Mark Coleman is 44-years-old and had no gas left in the tank in his last fight – a TKO loss to Mauricio Rua. Bonnar is younger and will push the pace against Coleman. Coleman’s only hope is to land takedowns and hold Bonnar down, but even then, he will be susceptible to submissions. Bonnar represents the more current MMA fighter while Coleman represents the elder era of fighters. At –350, Bonnar offers an expressive price for bettors. But if you’re looking for a potential sure thing, we recommend laying the money on Bonnar.
The Potential Long Shot Winner:
Thiago Alves +250 over Georges St. Pierre
Alves is on an eight-fight winning streak and he presents something St. Pierre has never faced: damaging leg kicks. Alves has the strongest kicks in the UFC welterweight division, and those kicks could significantly take away from GSP’s ability to score takedowns and effectively mix-up his strikes. Alves will also be the bigger fighter coming into the night. Despite the 170-pound weight limit for weigh-ins, by fight time, Alves is expected to be at least 190-pounds. St. Pierre may struggle to takedown the bigger fighter. If Alves can keep the fight on his feet, he has the edge on the champion with more powerful strikes and kicks.
UFC 100 Information
Date: Saturday, July 11
Location: Las Vegas, Nev.
Time: Main card airs at 10 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: Pay-Per View
Posted: 7/9/09 6:00PM ET