How Important is Probability Theory?

The Basics of Successful Betting: How Important Is Probability Theory?

Any popular betting strategy either in sports or gambling was created to get the maximum winnings. However, there are no win-win betting strategies.

All of them sometimes fail, bringing a series of losses to their owners. Today, we want to present you some basic principles of successful betting, so you will be able to make your own strategy. Let’s start!

1) The Probability Theory

Most gamblers believe that the theory of probability in betting does not work, because too many accidents affect the result of a game/draw, including a human factor. It is the same as if considering that gravity does not work on the plane, since it allows it to fly, despite the mass of several hundred tons. The fact that the result of a game depends on many chances only means that we cannot know in advance and precisely the probability of this result. However, this does not prevent the laws of mathematics and probability theory from working, which exist independently of specific events, being the basis of betting activity.

2) Dispersion

The dispersion rate often disappoints many players. In fact, the probability value means the frequency with which this event will occur in an infinite number of attempts. The fewer tests, the more the actual result may deviate from the mathematical expectation. Slots with high variance have long periods without any winnings. In a few dozen spins, a player can lose money by spending it and not receiving anything in return. After that, a large combination may appear or free spins may start. Therefore, it is important to play at site of your interest to check your strategy in a free mode.

3) There are no 100% winning bets

Nobody knows the real probability of a win, even the bookmaker. Bookmakers estimate this very probability, giving out the coefficient for a given event. In a short distance, an event with the specified probability can happen 20 times out of 20 (which often causes euphoria to inexperienced players who have caught such a successful streak). However, it may not happen 2, 3, or even 4 times in a row. Therefore, many players believe that after losing one, or several bets in a row, the probability of winning the next bet increases. In fact, the chance of winning does not depend on how many times you lost before. That is why do not try to recoup, but stop in time!

4) Learn how to make money in betting

To learn how to make money in betting, it is extremely important to change your principles of thinking towards “value betting”. Most players think in this way: “I am sure that MU will beat Chelsey, so I will bet on it.” However, your personal confidence in the victory of MU does not give any practical benefit when it comes to choosing the right bet. Instead, you must learn to evaluate how often MU (or any other team) will win in such a match. For example: “I think that MU will beat Chelsey in 8 out of 10 matches in the current state of these teams.” Consequently, you can check the bookmaker’s odds for this event and place bets on the right coefficient.

In Conclusion

You must be very skilled in mathematics, statistics, probability theory, and the principles of setting bookmaker odds to successfully determine events. Do not chase the momentary profit and look a little further than your nose. Good luck!

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