Experts Pick Big Brown
After a victorious and career-best showing at the Kentucky Derby, Big Brown is the obvious favorite to win the Preakness Stakes.
With a short break of two weeks, it would seem that he is a ripe for an upset, but with history of the favorites dominating this race on Big Brown’s side – coupled with a weak field – it is difficult to not to back him.
Doubters point to the regression factor, but at the same time each of Big Brown’s three Beyer Speed Figures are better than the entire field in the Preakness Stakes. Considering the easy Derby win and near perfect training since then, Big Brown has not missed a beat going into the second leg of the Triple Crown.
When you review the field for the Preakness Stakes, you will only find one Kentucky Derby starter, Gayego, in the lineup. The remaining horses attempting to take out Big Brown are essentially what you find at Grade 2 races. Not one of the horses Big Brown will face has even managed to finish first or second in a Grade 1 race (with only three graded stakes wins combined).
Horseracing experts are almost in universal agreement that Big Brown should win this race even if he does not have his best outing. Outside of the slight concern on the short turnaround while nursing sore feet, it is nearly impossible to not think this vastly superior horse will win the race easily.
How dominating is Big Brown to the field at the Preakness?
Big Brown has three Beyer Speed Figures at main tracks of over 100 (106,106 and 109). Besides Gayego, not one horse attempting to defeat Big Brown has one triple digit rating. Three of the horses in the race have never even made it to a 90 rating!
Even the critics of Big Brown who called the Derby field weak will have to admit the Preakness rundown makes the Derby roster look like all-stars.
Even though we tried to find something outside of the regression factor to make a case for Big Brown not to win this race, alas, we came up empty. Our end conclusion on handicapping this race is to stick with the big favorite and attempt to get paid off with some exotics wagers considering much of the field outside of Gayego will be paying huge odds.
All odds subject to change up until post time
More 2008 Preakness News
2008 Preakness Horse Profiles & Odds
- Hey Byrn
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