Lookin at Lucky Preview
Ironically, Lookin at Lucky didn’t have much fortune at the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. But the colt looks to bounce back when he races this Saturday at the Preakness Stakes.
Trainer Bob Baffert indicated on Friday that he won’t give instructions to new jockey Martin Garcia until it is time to saddle up on Saturday. Baffert says Garcia knows how his horses run and therefore, there’s not much to say in terms of game planning. Garcia of course is replacing Garrett Gomez, who had ridden Lookin at Lucky to six wins in his last nine outings but wasn’t meshing with the colt of late. Gomez came under criticism for the way he ran Lucky at the G1 Santa Anita Derby on April 3 and then his sixth place showing at the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago promoted Baffert to make a switch.
Lookin at Lucky opened as one of the favorites to win the 2010 Preakness at 4/1 odds, but is now 3/1 heading into Saturday’s race according to oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com. Paddy O’prado, who had the next best odds behind favorite Super Saver (2/1) at 3/1 earlier in the week, is now 6/1 to win Saturday’s race.
Lookin at Lucky faired much better on Wednesday at the post position draw than he did before the Kentucky Derby, when he drew the rail position. He’ll start at the No. 7 post, which is good considering the No. 4, No. 7 and No. 8 have two wins apiece since 2000.
Final Analysis & Outlook:
While his 6th place finish at the Derby certainly doesn’t qualify as a sharp prep, Lucky had an awful starting spot and battled traffic at the start. The good news is that he can pace or stalk, has stakes wins in each of the last two years and already has three starts in 2010. While he hasn’t broken the 100 Beyer plateau and isn’t coming off a sharp prep, we love Lookin at Lucky’s chances to rebound this week. Super Saver obviously presents a huge challenge to overcome and Baffert’s decision to switch jockeys midseason is concerning, but we still think Lucky offers a lot of value at 3/1. We wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see him ride to victory at Pimlico on Saturday.
Preakness Stakes 135 - Saturday, May 15, 2010 - Horse Racing Odds
Super Saver 5/2
Lookin at Lucky 3/1
Paddy O'prado 6/1
Jackson Bend 11/1
Schoolyard Dreams 14/1
First Dude 20/1
Pleasant Prince 20/1
Yawanna Twist 25/1
Northern Giant 28/1
Posted: 5/15/10 5:00PM ET