Thunder Snow vs. Untrapped Pick

Kentucky Derby Predictions: Thunder Snow to finish ahead of Untrapped? 5/6/17

Will Thunder Snow finish ahead of Untrapped in this evening's Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs?

The Matchup

According to oddsmakers from online sports book, Thunder Snow has 20/37 odds to finish ahead of Untrapped, who is 7/5 to pull off the upset in this matchup. For clarification, Thunder Snow doesn't have to win the Kentucky Derby in order to cash a winning wager. He just needs to finish ahead of Untrapped.

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Untrapped Snapshot

Untrapped had a disappointing showing in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, finishing sixth behind Classic Empire, Conquest Mo Money and Lookin At Lee, among others. He did place in the money in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes back on March 18 and placed in each of his six starts. A Steve Asmussen-trained horse, Untrapped will be ridden by jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.

Thunder Snow Snapshot

In eight career starts, Thunder Snow has won four times, has placed second twice, and has zero third-place showings. He is coming off three consecutive victories, including the Grade 1 Criterium International, the Grade 3 UAE 2000 Guineas, and the Grade 2 UAE Derby. Thunder Snow enters the Kentucky Derby field as a bit of a mystery, as he was bred in Ireland and has raced in Great Britain as well as Dubai. His resume is impressive, but the best Kentucky Derby finish for Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum's Godolphin Racing came in 2015, when Frosted finished fourth.

Kentucky Derby Matchup Prediction

Even though Thunder Snow is a gamble, I can't overlook his resume. His first six races were on turf, which would be a knock on his ability to run on the dirt surface at Churchill Downs, but he won his last two races on dirt so the track shouldn't bother him. Besides, Untrapped has only finished off the board once in his career, which came in his last race before the Derby. But he's still only one once in six career races and scuffled against top competition in the Arkansas Derby.

2017 Kentucky Derby Prediction: Thunder Snow over Untrapped


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