Gunnevera vs. Hence Derby Prediction

2017 Kentucky Derby Predictions: Will Gunnevera beat out Hence? 5/6/17

Will Gunnevera beat out Hence in Saturday's Kentucky Derby, which takes place this evening from Churchill Downs?

The Matchup

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, Gunnevera has 20/33 odds to finish ahead of Hence, who is 27/20 to pull off the upset. In these matchup props, Gunnevera doesn't have to win the Kentucky Derby in order to cash a winning wager. He simply has to finish ahead of Hence.

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Hence Snapshot

Hence won the March 26 Sunland Derby, has posted quick workouts at Churchill Downs, and won the Sunland Derby going away by 3 3/4 lengths. In the Sunland Derby, Hence showed excellent kick on the far turn, which is something that many Derby winners have shown over the years. A true stalker/closer, Hence could wind up in the money with a strong finish down the stretch at Churchill Downs today.

Gunnevera Snapshot

In his final prep for the Derby, Gunnevera finished third in the Grade 1 Florida Derby behind Always Dreaming and State of Honor, respectively. He also won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, placed second in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, and won the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot. Not short on experience, Gunnevera has four wins in nine career starts, posting a pair of second-place finishes and one third-place finish as well.

Kentucky Derby Matchup Prediction

Gunnevera is one of the most consistent Kentucky Derby contenders in the field, having won three graded stakes races over his career. A late closer himself, Gunnevera should have the closing kick to beat out most contenders down the stretch. Javier Castellano was also just elected to the Racing Hall of Fame and finished fourth aboard Normandy Invasion in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. These are similar horses, but Gunnevera has nine races under his belt, compared to Hence's six career starts.

2017 Kentucky Derby Prediction: Gunnevera over Hence

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