2018 Kentucky Derby Predictions

2018 Kentucky Derby Predictions 5/5/18 Who Will Win?

The 2018 Kentucky Derby will take place Saturday evening from Churchill Downs. What is our best trifecta ahead of tonight's race?

To Win: Magnum Moon (6/1)

In his four-start career, Magnum Moon has never lost. He's coming off a victory in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and also took first in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. In his first wins, he won by at least two lengths. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing at the age of two years old since Apollo back in 1882. Still, Magnum Moon and Justify fit that category and both are contenders to win at Churchill Downs later today. Magnum Moon has a tendency to drift, but I'll take my chances on this amazing horse. After all, he faced most of the same horses he just defeated in the Rebel Stakes and nobody has yet to challenge him. I love his odds.

To Place: Justify (3/1)

Justify is the chalk at 3/1 but I don't think he wins. His trainer Bob Baffert was reportedly telling anyone who would listen this week at Churchill Downs that Justify could be the next American Pharoah. While I wouldn't go that far, I recognize his immense talent. In his three starts, Justify hasn't been challenged. He blew away the field at the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, which helped make him the favorite heading into the Kentucky Derby. Still, with limited experience, I'm not banking on him to win. Plus, I like Magnum Moon's odds better.

To Show: Audible (8/1)

This is a speed horse that probably won't win but I wouldn't be surprised if he led at some point this evening. Even though he was defeated in his first start, Audible showed his immense closing speed while finishing third despite being 20 lengths back through a half-mile. He followed up that third-place finish with victories in each of his next four starts, including in the Grade 2 Holy Bull and the Grade 1 Florida Derby. I expect him to be in the mix today.

Fourth: Vino Rosso (12/1)

If you're looking for a long shot to contend, look no further than Vino Rosso. He struggled at Tampa Bay Downs, as he came out flat in his third-place showing in the Sam F. Davis and when he finished fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby. It wasn't as if he tired or faded late, he just never kicked it into high gear. That said, Vino Rosso found that extra gear in the Wood Memorial, winning by three lengths. I don't trust him enough to put him in my trifecta but I do think he hovers around the front just long enough to be in the mix.

 

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