Magnum Moon vs. Hofburg Derby Pick

2018 Kentucky Derby Predictions 5/5/18 Magnum Moon vs. Hofburg

Will Magnum Moon finish ahead of Hofburg on Saturday at the 2018 Kentucky Derby? Oddsmakers have released matchup odds for tonight's race from Churchill Downs and there's value in one of the aforementioned horses.

The Odds

According to oddsmakers, Justify is +250 to win Saturday evening at Churchill Downs. My Boy Jack is +350, followed by Audible and Mendelssohn at +450, respectively. The other contenders are Bolt d'Oro at +600 and Good Magic at +750.

Some of the mid-range long-shots including Magnum Moon and Vino Rosso at +1200, followed by Hofburg at +2000. Lone Sailor, meanwhile, is +2100.

The deep long shots include Free Drop Billy at +4000, followed by Promises Fulfilled and Flmeaway at +4250, respectively. Enticed and Noble Indy are +4500, respectively, followed by Firenze Fire at +5000 and Bravazo and Solomini at +5500, respectively. Combatant is +6000 and Instilled Regard as the longest odds at +7000.

Our Prediction: Hofburg vs. Magnum Moon

Magnum Moon is -126 to beat Hofburg, who has odds of -104. This is a tremendous value in my eyes. Experts don't like Magnum Moon because he drifts and because he falls into the "curse of Apollo" category but I don't care. This is one of the most talented horses in the field and he has yet to be challenged in his four career races (all wins). The Arkansas Derby is one of the best prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby and Magnum Moon won that Grade 1 race by four lengths. I like everything about Magnum Moon and I see him finishing ahead of Hofburg.

 

2018 Kentucky Derby Prediction: Magnum Moon -126

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