2013 Kentucky Derby Predictions
CHURCHILL DOWNS, KY (The Spread) - Which contenders will finish win, place and show at today's 2013 Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs? Let's hand out some predictions.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, Orb is 17/4 to win today's Kentucky Derby while Verrazano is listed right behind him at 19/4. Both Revolutionary and Goldencents are 7/1, respectively, while Normandy Invasion and Itsmyluckyday are 10/1, respectively.
WIN: Verrazano 19/4
It's hard to bet against a horse that hasn't lost, even though Orb has an impressive track record as well. Verrazano won a MSW on January 1 and then one month later won an Allowance in early February. In his first graded stakes, he beat out Java's War and Falling Sky to win the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby and then schooled Normandy Invasion and Vyjack in the Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 6. The career record is impressive, but the fact that he has wins in both Grade I and Grade II staked races makes Verrazano hard to pass up tonight.
PLACE: Itsmyluckyday 10/1
Outside of a sixth place showing in his first graded stakes race (the Grade III Delta Downs Jackpot in November of last year), and a fourth-place showing less than a month later, Itsmyluckyday hasn't finished out of the money in 10 career races. Of those 10 races, he finished first at the Gulfstreak Park Derby, first at the Grade II Holy Bull Stakes, and second to Orb in the Grade I Florida Derby. With a ton of experience under his belt and some great finishes in his last three starts, look for Itsmyluckyday to finish in the top 3 tonight.
SHOW: Vyjack 20/1
While he hasn't faced the stiffest of competition throughout his career, Vyjack is our sleeper to finish in the money today. He finished first in a MSW on November 10 of last year, first at Traskwood on December 9, and first in his first graded stakes race on January 5 (Grade II Jerome Handicap). He then won the Grade III Gotham Stakes on March 2 only to turn around and place a respectable third behind Verrazano and Normandy Invasion on April 6. For a horse that hasn't finished out of the money yet, 20/1 odds represents good value.