Kentucky Derby Picks
The 136th running of the Kentucky Derby takes place this evening at 6:14PM ET from Churchill Downs. We take a look at the odds and hand out our predictions for today’s race.
Win: Sidney’s Candy (6/1)
Lookin at Lucky may be the favorite entering Saturday’s race, but we find that Sidney’s Candy offers more value for a couple of reasons. For starters, Sidney’s Candy has already beaten Lookin at Lucky once this year and is coming off three straight wins. The biggest concern about Sidney’s Candy is that this will be his first time on dirt, so you never know how the horse will respond on a surface that he’s not familiar with. That said, all the reports from Churchill Downs this week have been positive and he apparently has had no issues with the dirt track. At 6/1 odds, we think Sidney’s Candy displays outstanding value and we like him to upset the favorite today.
Place: Super Saver (12/1)
Super Saver has never finished worse than fourth this year and ran an encouraging second at the G1 Arkansas Derby on April 10 (even though he lost to fellow Kentucky Derby contender Line of David in that race). The key might be jockey Calvin Borel, who has won two of the last three Derby races and just seems to have that magic touch at Churchill Downs. We think Super Saver might be in store for a breakout performance and we like him to at least show.
Show: Paddy O’prado (18/1)
Paddy O’prado has the most experience on longer tracks, finishing second at the G1 Blue Grass on April 10, first at the G3 Palm Beach on March 6 and third at the MSW on February 10. The problem is that most of his experience has come on turf and in his only dirt race of his career, he finished seventh on a sloppy track. We just don’t know how he’ll handle things on dirt, but he has proven that he can finish the money in long distances and he's a powerful horse. We originally liked Conveyance in this spot, but we think he'll struggle down the stretch after racing out to a big lead.
Best of the Rest:
Lookin at Lucky (4/1)
There’s no harm in taking the favorite of course, and there’s a very good possibility that Lookin at Lucky will finish somewhere in the top 3. That said, the rail position hasn’t produced a winner in a 20-horse race since the 1930s and we’re skeptical about Lookin at Lucky after the way jockey Garrett Gomez rode him at the G1 Santa Anita Derby on April 3. We just see more value in the horses listed above.
Line of David (22/1)
If we didn’t like Conveyance so much, Line of David would probably be listed in the top 3. He’s the ultimate sleeper after making the transition from allowance winner to Grade 1 winner in one easy step. He’s also won his last three races, which included an upset at the Arkansas Derby. The only problem is that he doesn’t have much experience against top competition. Still, he’s already proven that he can beat Super Saver, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see Line of David finish in the money.
There’s only one reason to take Conveyance and there’s only one reason to stay as far away from him as possible: Speed. The 3-year-old is arguably the fastest horses in the Derby and we firmly believe that he will set the pace and lead at some point on Saturday. The problem of course, is that speed doesn’t necessarily help at the Kentucky Derby. It’s a long-distance race and it’s incredibly hard to win wire to wire at Churchill Downs. As we mentioned above, we think he'll struggle down that long stretch where speed won't help him.
Posted: 5/1/10 11:00AM ET
Updated: 5/1/10 2:45PM ET