Most Profitable Run Line MLB Teams

Most Profitable Run Line Teams So Far This Season

Some casual or recreational bettors might not know much about the runline. Perhaps they have heard this term but they haven't had the chance to learn what it is and how to profit with it.

Runline betting can be compared to spread betting in sports like football and basketball. With the runline, you don't back one team to win the game straight up; instead, you bet on whether one of the teams will win by at least two runs.

Teams that are favored on the runline are listed at -1.5, which means that they would have to win by at least two runs for the bet to cash, while underdogs are usually listed at +1.5 and would have to either win the game straight up or lose by exactly one run for you to have a winning play.

The juice changes from game to game, but betting runline favorites will usually help maximize a payout. For example, the Yankees were at -165 on the moneyline on Monday night's game against the White Sox, but +130 on the runline. The Yankees won the game 7-4, so they covered the runline. Here's the difference in profits based on a $100 bet on the Yankees with those odds.

Moneyline = $100

Runline = $130

Bovada has great odds available, check'em out at SBR. Most bettors avoid taking big favorites on the moneyline and prefer placing wagers on the runline because it lets them bet on the best teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, Indians and Red Sox and pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello or Max Scherzer without having to risk losing large amounts of money.

Below are the results for the Top 10 teams since the start of the 2017 regular season, as of Tuesday, April 18.

Team               Runline Record

Yankees            9-4

Diamondbacks   9-5

Brewers             9-5   

Rangers            8-5

Twins                8-5

Reds                8-5

Braves              7-5

White Sox         7-5

Phillies             7-5

Royals             7-5

The table above tells us that the Yankees have the best runline record so far at 9-4, with the Diamondbacks and the Brewers at second place at 9-5. The Angels (not on the table) on the other hand have the worst runline record at just 3-11.

Team               Cover Percentage

Yankees           69.2%

Diamondbacks  64.3%

Brewers            64.3%  

Rangers            61.5%

Twins                61.5%

Reds                 61.5%

Braves              58.3%

White Sox         58.3%

Phillies              58.3%

Royals              58.3%

This table reflects that the Yankees have covered the runline 69.2% of the time. The next teams with the best cover percentage are the Diamondbacks and the Brewers at 64.3%.

Team               Average margin of victory

Yankees          1.8          

Twins              1.6

Dodgers          1.5

Reds               1.2

Orioles            0.9  

Astros             0.8

Brewers           0.7

Rangers           0.7

Mets                0.6

Diamondbacks  0.6

We sorted the teams by their average margin of victory (negative in losses) and discovered that the Yankees also lead the majors with a 1.8 average margin of victory. The fact that they're 9-4 on the runline and have a 1.8 average margin of victory determines that they're a solid bet right now because they're winning games often and by more than 1.5 runs.

Team                   Runline +/-

Twins                  +2.0

Diamondbacks     +1.9

Brewers               +1.8

Reds                   +1.5

Rangers              +1.3

Yankees             +1.2

White Sox           +1.2

Marlins                +1.1

Orioles                +1.0

Rays                   +1.0

The Runline +/- is the average amount of runs that the team covers the runline by. Based on the table above, the Twins lead MLB covering the runline by an average of 2.0 runs. These results evidence that when the Twins cover, they do it by a wide a margin. It all comes down to finding value, so keep all these standings in mind and look for profitable spots to bet and shop for the best lines.

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