Final Four Bet Preview
Hey Duke-Haters…it’s been a tough couple of weeks and things look to only get tougher.
Online sportsbooks currently have Coach K and the boys listed at +125 to win the NCAA hoops title, followed by the West Virginia Mountaineers at +175, the Michigan State Spartans at +350 and the Butler Bulldogs at +400.
West Virginia vs. Duke
The Blue Devils are the only #1-seed left in the tourney and head into their Final Four matchup against the Mountaineers listed as 2.5-point favorites, with the Over/Under set at 131.
The last time these two met in March Madness was in 2008 when WVU defeated Duke 73-67, covering as a 4-point underdog.
Back to the present, the Blue Devils are 4-0 straight up and against the spread during this year’s March Madness tourney. They are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games in the month of March and are 18-2 SU in their last 20 games overall.
However, Duke is a horrendous 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine when favored by 4-points or less.
Over/Under Numbers: In their last 20 games overall, Duke has a record 6 Overs and 14 Unders.
In their last nine games when favored by 4 points or less, they have a record of 2 Overs and 7 Unders.
The West Virginia Mountaineers have been equally impressive in their last 20 overall, with a record of 17-3 SU.
In terms of Over/Under numbers, the Mountaineers have produced 1 Over and 7 Unders in their last eight games.
The players at online sportsbook SPORTSBETTING.com have given Duke a slight nod in terms of betting action, with 56% of all the volume on this one tilted to the Blue Devils.
Michigan State vs. Butler
To the casual bettor, it might seem a little odd that the Michigan State Spartans — one of last year’s Final Four and the runner-up — are listed as underdogs of 1.5-points for their Final Four tilt against the unheralded Butler Bulldogs; the Total is set at 126.
But the Spartans are missing regular season leading scorer Kalin Lucas, who is out with an Achilles’ tendon injury, and the Butler campus is located in the same city as the Final Four, Indianapolis, Indiana, giving the Bulldogs a homecourt advantage.
The Spartans are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games overall and in their last 20 games in the month of March, they are 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS.
The Butler Bulldogs are only 10-10 ATS in their last 20 games overall, but they are also 20-0 straight up.
During their 2010 March Madness journey, the Butler Bulldogs are 3-1 ATS, pulling off some big upsets along the way. The Bulldogs took out their region’s top seed, the Syracuse Orange, in the Sweet 16 winning 63-59, covering as 6.5-point underdogs.
The Bulldogs then knocked out the second-seeded Kansas State Wildcats in the Elite Eight by a final of 63-56, covering as 4-point ‘dogs.
However, the Butler Bulldogs are only 3-6 SU and ATS in their last nine games when favored by 2-points or less.
The sports betting public look like they think this might be the end of the road for Butler, with 60% putting their money on the small dog Spartans to move through to the Championship game.
Enjoy the games!
Posted: 4/1/10 9:50PM ET