Chargers vs. Chiefs Total Prediction
The total for Sunday’s AFC West matchup between the Chargers and Chiefs opened at 47 but dropped to 44.5 at most sports books. With that significant of line movement, is the under the best play when it comes to the total for this game?
125 Los Angeles Chargers (+9) at 126 Kansas City Chiefs (-9); O/U 44.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 29, 2019
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are drawing 71% of the betting tickets ahead of tonight’s game.
Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Spin
Philip Rivers (thumb) was a limited participant for Wednesday's practice. Rivers has certainly declined in the latter half of the year but this is the first we're hearing of any finger injury. With only one game left in what could be his final season with the Chargers, it's hard to imagine Rivers sitting against the Chiefs. Kansas City is still vying for a first-round bye, so expect all of the Chiefs' arsenal to play even if it's Tyrod Taylor under center for Los Angeles.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Patrick Mahomes completed 23-of-33 passes for 251 yards with two touchdowns in Kansas City's Week 16 win over Chicago, adding two carries for 14 yards and a rushing touchdown. Mahomes and the Chiefs coasted to an easy win, with Kansas City's defense holding Chicago out of the end-zone. Mahomes set the tone on the opening drive of the night, extending the play and scrambling in for a 12-yard touchdown. He later connected with Travis Kelce and Damien Williams on red-zone throws for his passing TDs. Mahomes didn't need to do much in this one but still managed a big game despite the tough matchup. He'll close out the regular season against the Chargers in Week 17.
The over is 4-1 in the Chargers’ last five road games and has cashed in 10 of the last 13 times the Bolts have played in Week 17.
The under is 27-18-1 in the Chiefs’ last 36 home games when facing an opponent with a losing road record.
NFL Week 12 Prediction
With how well Kansas City’s defense has played lately, I like the under. During the team’s current five-game winning streak, the Chiefs held all five opponents to 17 points or fewer, including back-to-back games in which they surrendered a combined six points in wins over Denver and Chicago. The under is also 5-0 in the Chiefs’ last five games overall, is 6-0 in their last six divisional matchups and is 40-17-1 in their last 58 games as a home favorite. The Chargers have had issues protecting the quarterback all season, which has limited their scoring at times, so the under works on L.A.’s side as well.
NFL WEEK 17 PREDICTION: Chargers/Chiefs UNDER 44.5