Bills vs. Patriots Total Prediction
The total for Saturday afternoon’s AFC East matchup between the Bills and Patriots opened at 38.5 but has dropped to 37. With the first meeting between these two teams resulting in a combined 26 points, is the under the best play?
453 Buffalo Bills (+6.5) at 454 New England Patriots (-6.5); O/U 37
4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, December 21, 2019
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Bills are receiving 61% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Spin
Josh Allen completed 13-of-25 passes for 139 yards with a touchdown and an interception in Buffalo's Week 15 win over the Steelers, adding seven carries for 28 yards and a rushing touchdown. Allen vultured Devin Singletary at the one-yard line for his rushing TD. He hit Tyler Kroft for the go-ahead score on a wide open red-zone throw with just under eight minutes remaining on what proved to be the game winner. Allen’s interception was thrown too high but should have been caught by Cole Beasley for his lone blemish on the night. The win moves Buffalo to 10-4 and clinches a playoff spot. Allen didn't need to do much in this one but this was a gutty performance. The Bills get another tough matchup with the Patriots in Week 16, where Allen will be a higher-end QB2.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Tom Brady completed 15-of-29 passes for 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Patriots' 34-13, Week 15 win over the Bengals. It was an easy victory, but a thoroughly uninspiring day for Brady, who has now averaged fewer than 5.0 yards per attempt in back-to-back starts. For the season, that number is all the way down to 6.47. Not exactly ideal for someone who entered Week 15 leading the league in attempts. Brady was sailing throws over open receivers — including a should-be score to Mohamed Sanu — and tossed a potential touchdown at Sony Michel's feet. The Bills are not a Week 16 get-right spot for the fantasy finals.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 20-7 in the Bills’ last 27 road games and is 20-8 in their last 28 games overall.
The under is 8-3 in the Patriots’ last 11 home games and has cashed in 18 of their last 26 games overall.
In my eyes, it’s the under or nothing here. The Patriots just racked up over 30 points a week ago but they only had 13 points at halftime and they were facing a Bengals team that kept turning the ball over in the second half (including a pick-six). All is not right or fixed offensively in New England and if this Pats team is going to hold off the Bills in the division, they’ll once again have to rely on their defense and special teams to beat Buffalo. Meanwhile, the Bills continue to be strong defensively and solid, yet lacking explosiveness offensively. There’s little to no margin for error when it comes to the under, but I do see yet another defensive struggle playing out between these division rivals.
NFL Week 16 Prediction: Bills/Patriots UNDER 37