Patriots vs. Steelers Total Prediction
A potential playoff matchup will take place on Sunday in Pittsburgh when the Steelers host the Patriots at 4:25 p.m. ET. With the total sitting in the mid-50s, will the matchup turn into a high-scoring affair?
327 New England Patriots at 328 Pittsburgh Steelers
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 16
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Patriots are 2.5-point favorites to beat the Steelers. The total, meanwhile, sits at 52 points. As of this writing, 60% of the public betting tickets are on the Patriots to cover the point spread.
New England Patriots
Tom Brady completed 27-of-43 passes for 358 yards and three touchdowns in the Patriots' Week 14 loss to Miami. This was arguably the sharpest Brady has looked all year, but a few miscues wound up costing New England, including their inability to tackle Dolphins players on Miami's game-winning lateral play from 69 yards out. Brady took a costly sack at the end of the first half to allow time to expire when simply throwing the ball away would have set up an easy field goal, and Stephen Gostkowski missed a three-point attempt in a game the Pats lost by one. Brady will get a tougher test in Week 15 at Pittsburgh, although that game could easily turn into a shootout.
Ben Roethlisberger (ribs) fully expects to play against the Patriots on Sunday. "No, no, I don’t think so," Roethlisberger responded when asked if there was any reason he would not play against New England. Coach Mike Tomlin revealed Roethlisberger did not immediately re-enter Sunday's game against Oakland because it takes pain-killers some time to kick in, suggesting Roethlisberger's injury is just a pain-management issue. Assuming he plays, Roethlisberger will be a solid QB1 against New England.
NFL Betting Trends
The over is 23-8 in the Patriots’ last 31 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
The over is 4-0 in the Steelers’ last four home games.
With Brady and the Patriots offense not firing on all cylinders and Big Ben banged-up, I like the under in this matchup. In New England’s last 11 road games, the under is 8-3. The Pittsburgh’s last five conference games, the under is 4-1. These two teams met a year ago in Pittsburgh around this time of year and despite having better, healthier offenses at the time, the final score was 27-24 (granted, that was the game the Steelers got robbed on a potential touchdown in the closing seconds). Nevertheless, a year later the total is higher but the offenses are potentially worse. I see value in the under.
NFL Week 15 Prediction: Patriots/Steelers under 52