49ers vs. Texans Prediction
Will Jimmy Garoppolo lead the San Francisco 49ers to another victory on Sunday when they visit the Houston Texans at 1:00 p.m. ET?
Who Oddsmakers Like: Houston. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Texans are 1.5-point home favorites to beat the 49ers, who were a 3-point underdog earlier in the week. As for the total, the number hit the board at 43 but has been bet up a full point to 45.
Who the Public Likes: As of Sunday morning, the Texans were receiving 53% of the betting tickets, which is somewhat surprising. I thought Garoppolo would sway public bettors in taking the Niners after they won last week in Chicago. Also, 67% of the money is on Houston as well.
Who the Trends Like: The 49ers have covered the spread in five of their last seven road games but they're just 3-9-1 against the number in their last 13 games in December. The Texans have been a bad bet in this month too, failing to cover in four of their last five games played in December.
Who We Like: Houston. The Texans have been horrible thanks to a slew of injuries to key players on defense and, more importantly, because Tom Savage was forced into action after sensational rookie DeShaun Watson tore his knee. Still, I'm not sure why the point spread in this game isn't a field goal. If home teams are normally granted three points, are we actually suggesting that the 49ers are good enough to erase that benefit? Come on.
Believe it or not, the Texans have out-gained their last three opponents. They only have one win to show for that effort but they should have covered last week in Tennessee (a late touchdown provided a gift for Titans bettors and a crushing blow to Texans backers). The Texans are also 12-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous contest.
The Niners, meanwhile, have been a horrible play coming off an ATS win. In their last 10 games following victory at the betting window, San Francisco is just 3-7 ATS in its next game. If you really feel compelled to play this one, I think there's some value in the home squad.
NFL WEEK 14 PREDICTIONS: HOUSTON TEXANS -1.5