Colts vs. Bills Prediction

NFL Predictions: Colts vs. Bills to be Surprisingly High-Scoring? 12/10/17

Even though the Buffalo Bills are forced to turn back to rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman, will their game Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts be surprisingly high-scoring at 1:00 p.m. ET?

Who Oddsmakers Like: Buffalo. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Bills are 3-point home favorites to beat the Colts, who opened as 3.5-point road underdogs. As for the total, the number hit the board at 39.5 but was bet up a half-point to 40.

Who the Public Likes: As of Sunday morning, the Bills were receiving 72% of the betting tickets and 80% of the money to cover the small point spread.

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Who the Trends Like: The under and the Bills. In the last six meetings between these two teams, the under is 5-1. In the last six meetings in Buffalo, the under is also 5-1. Meanwhile, the home team is 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings, the favorite is 5-2-1 against the number in the last eight meetings, and the Colts are just 1-3-1 at the betting window in their last five games against the Bills.

Who We Like: The over. Even though the under has been a great bet in this series, does anyone remember what happened the last time Peterman started for Buffalo? Yes, he threw five interceptions against the Chargers. Most of those turnovers also resulted in points for Los Angeles in what turned into a high-scoring game.

Don't let the weather fool you: The over can be profitable in low-scoring games. Just because it's cold doesn't mean the under is an automatic play. Wind is the only thing that affects teams' game plans to the point where they would want to run the ball consistently (and thus, run clock as well). Snow, rain, cold…these things aren't automatic under-cashers.

With the turnover-machine Peterman under center, I'm going to take a flier on the over with such a low total. The over is 4-1 in the Bills' last five games played in December, is 16-5 in their last 21 home games, and has cashed in five of their last seven games. Outside of their trip to Kansas City two weeks ago, Buffalo hasn't played defense since the first month of the season.

 

NFL WEEK 14 PREDICTIONS: COLTS/BILLS OVER 40

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