Bears vs. Bengals Prediction
Are the Cincinnati Bengals a bad bet to cover the point spread as nearly a touchdown-sized home favorite against the visiting Chicago Bears today at 1:00 p.m. ET?
Who Oddsmakers Like: Cincinnati. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Bengals are 6.5-point home favorites to beat the Bears, who opened as 6-point road underdogs earlier in the week. As for the total, the number hit the board at 37 but has jumped two full points to 39.
Who the Public Likes: As of Sunday morning, 55% of the betting tickets were on the Bengals to cover as a home favorite. That said, 51% of the money is actually on the Bears. That would indicate that at least some sharp action is on Chicago.
Who the Trends Like: There are conflicting trends for this game. The Bears are just 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games against the Bengals but the underdog is 3-1-1 at the betting window in the last five meetings between these two teams.
Who We Like: Chicago. I try not to make it a habit of betting on bad teams but it's inevitable in the NFL because more than half the league is bad (or merely average). That includes the Bengals, who just blew their opportunity to potentially jump back into the AFC wild card picture after collapsing in the second half on Monday night.
Let's stick with that situation for a moment. So there the Bengals were, up 17-0 late in the second quarter against one of their biggest division rivals, the Steelers, on Monday night. Pittsburgh gets a big play right before half that leads to a field goal and then in the second half of one of the most brutal games you'll see in the NFL, the Steelers rally to pull off the win. For all intents and purposes, that was the end of the Bengals' season.
Now Marvin Lewis, who is likely done in Cincinnati, and his team have to get prepared on a short week to face a Bears team with nothing to play for. It's a horrible spot for the Bengals, who, outside of the winless Browns a few weeks ago, haven't beaten anyone by more than four points all season. Sorry for repeating myself, but how the hell does Cincinnati get up for this one?
Granted, the Bears have been a better bet at home this year than on the road and they've been horrible offensively of late. Still, you know Mitchell Trubisky is still playing hard and here's the kicker: The Bengals have been out-gained by every opponent the last seven weeks. Value, anyone?
NFL WEEK 14 PREDICTIONS: CHICAGO BEARS +7 (buy the hook)