Chiefs vs. Patriots Week 14 Prediction
The Patriots have struggled offensively for months but they’re also a perfect 5-0 at home this season and 10-2 on the year thanks to their defense. Will they both win and cover versus the Chiefs today at 4:25 p.m. ET?
151 Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at 152 New England Patriots (-3); O/U 48.5
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 8
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Patrick Mahomes completed just 15-of-29 passes for 175 yards and one touchdown in the Chiefs' 40-9, Week 13 win over the Raiders, adding 25 rushing yards and a second touchdown on three attempts. After passing for a career low 182 yards and one score last time out, Mahomes set a new career worst with 175 yards in this one. His 14 completions also matched a career low. When the Chiefs put up 40 points in game last season, Mahomes was typically the one doing the damage. But the Chiefs ran for three touchdowns in this one and also scored one on the defensive side. Mahomes' lone passing score was a short hookup with Darrel Williams in the first quarter. Mahomes gets a tough Week 14 test in Foxboro against the Patriots.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Tom Brady completed 17-of-37 passes for 190 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions in the Patriots' 13-9, Week 12 win over the Cowboys. Brady struggled to get the offense on track, as the Cowboys’ pass rush and bend-don’t-break secondary consistently kept the Patriots from stringing together long drives. The lack of a dominant rushing game didn’t help, but that’s largely been the case throughout the season. Additionally, the porous weather conditions and absence of Mohamed Sanu (ankle) as well as Phillip Dorsett (concussion) made this an uphill battle for the passing game. Still, the production was also a reminder that Brady doesn’t boast much of a fantasy ceiling these days inside of the Patriots’ bottom-10 offense in yards per play. The good news is that next week’s matchup against the Texans’ banged-up secondary should yield better results.
NFL Betting Trends
The Chiefs are 19-9 against the spread in their last 28 games versus conference foes and are 10-4-1 against the number in their last 15 road games.
The Patriots are 42-18-2 against the spread in their last 62 home games and have covered 47 of their last 69 games overall.
The Patriots offense lacks a running game and a deep threat in the passing game, which is why Tom Brady continues to be off with his receivers. Julian Edeleman is their only consistent threat and while it’s possible New England discovers its running game today against a bad Kansas City run defense, I’m willing to take the risk betting against the Pats at home. Patrick Mahomes isn’t the same class of mobile quarterback as Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson, two signal-callers that gave New England’s defense trouble this season. That said, Mahomes is mobile both inside and out of the pocket, which seems to be the Pats’ kryptonite.
NFL Week 14 Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs +3