Chiefs vs. Falcons Prediction

NFL Week 13 Predictions: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons 11/6/16

Is the line over-inflated in today's Chiefs and Falcons matchup or will Atlanta cover as a sizable home favorite at 1:00PM ET?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Falcons are 6-point home favorites versus the Chiefs after opening as a 4-point favorite. As for the total, the number hit the board at 49 and has been bet up a full point to 50.

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CHIEFS KEY TRENDS: The Chiefs are 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games and are 4-0 against the number in their last four games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous contest. That said, they have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games coming off a win and are 0-8 at the betting window in their last eight games when they covered the week before.

FALCONS KEY TRENDS: Atlanta is 5-1 against the number in its last six games following a straight up win and is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games after scoring more than 30 points in its previous game. The Falcons have also covered in seven of their last 10 games overall but are just 3-8 at the betting window in their last 11 home games.

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OUR PREDICTION: Three weeks ago when the Falcons traveled to Philadelphia the Eagles laid out the blueprint on how to beat Atlanta: Run the football with a ball-control offense, win the time of possession battle, play good defense and limit the possessions that Matt Ryan and Co. have on offense. The Chiefs are a similar team and can accomplish the same feat but they also played essentially an extra quarter last Sunday night in Denver, then had to travel Atlanta to play back-to-back road games. If the Chiefs can't run, then their worn-out defense will be scrambling to keep pace with all of the Falcons' offensive weapons. Kansas City's offense isn't built to win shootouts so if Atlanta gets rolling early, they won't stop. I'm banking on the Chiefs trying but failing to replicate what the Eagles did to the Falcons and Atlanta turning today into a track meet.



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