Patriots vs. Bills Prediction
Are the New England Patriots a good bet to cover the spread against the Buffalo Bills? Or will this NFC East matchup be closer than oddsmakers expect?
Who Oddsmakers Like: New England. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Patriots are now 7.5-point road favorites versus the Bills, who opened as 9-point home underdogs. As for the total, the number hit the board at 49 but has been bet down a half-point to 48.5.
Who the Public Likes: New England. As of Sunday morning, 60% of tickets are on the Patriots to cover the spread.
Who the Trends Like: New England and the over. The Patriots have covered the spread in 11 of the last 13 meetings between these two teams in Buffalo. The Pats are also 23-11-2 at the betting window in their last 36 games versus the Bills while the road team is 18-7-1 against the number in the last 26 meetings between these two teams. Finally, the over has cashed in five of the last six meetings in Buffalo.
Who We Like: New England. When the Bills have had success this season, they've thrived on turnovers. When they don't get turnovers, their limited talent shows. The Patriots have committed a league-low seven turnovers this season. They don't beat themselves and they force you to deal with Tom Brady, who has a 20-4 record with 54 touchdown passes and five interceptions dating back to his Deflategate suspension last year.
Over their last five games, the Patriots are averaging 30.6 points per game while allowing fewer than 18 points in their last seven games. They have ironed out their defensive issues and are still firing on all cylinders offensively.
Granted, Tyrod Taylor and Co. have been tough at home, although the last time we saw the Bills play in Buffalo, the team was shellacked by the Saints. This game shouldn't close.
NFL WEEK 13 PREDICTIONS: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -7 (buy the hook)